Arms Control Wonk

Episode31 min

The Big Honking Hyunmoo-V

An absolutely massive mobile ballistic missile was paraded in North…. …wait sorry…. South Korea. Force of habit.    Decker joins Jeffrey to talk about the absolute unit that the ROK just showed off. But don’t worry, it’s just an “SRBM with…

Episode26 min

A Chinese ICBM Test in the Pacific

China tested an ICBM deep into the Pacific Ocean, instead of short-shooting it into PRC deserts.  Decker Eveleth joins Jeffrey to talk about why this is a fascinating change in behavior for the PLA Rocket Force and PRC in general.…

Episode34 min

Iran’s October Missile Raid

Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we’re still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at…

Episode27 min

Busting the Burevestnik

Friend of the Pod Decker Eveleth found the Burevestnik deployment site, it seems! Decker, of the CNA Corporation, has tracked down what appears to be the deployment site of the 9M730 Burevestnik, aka the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, using Planet Labs satellite…

Article

Turkey’s Nuclear Turbines

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 we’ve heard a lot of chatter about US and European resolve to sanction or otherwise deter cooperation between the West and Russia’s nuclear industry. A small number of vendors in Europe and the…

Episode32 min

Typhon, Father of Monsters

Jeffrey and his team have been OSINT’ing the heck out of the deployment of the Typhon Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) ((Typhon Smurf?)) to the Philippines, and tracked down the airport and deployment zone. Recently the U.S. Army deployed the new…

Episode28 min

Russian Entanglement

Tom Schelling described escalation as a “curved slope” where you won’t be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey…

Episode25 min

Iran and Israel’s Missile War

We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran’s missile raid or Israeli’s missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile…

Article

Chabahar Shuffle

Satellite imagery reveals the location of Irans new space launch center being built near the city of Chabahar.

Episode35 min

Iran’s Once in a Lifetime Moment

And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself…