Let’s Discuss Strategic Stability
by | July 6, 2021 | 1 Comment
“The best arguments in the world won’t change a person’s mind. The only thing that can do that is a good story.” – Richard Powers, The Overstory “Life has a way of talking to the future. It’s called memory.” – Richard Powers, The Overstory Washington and Moscow have agreed to a resumption of dialogue under …
Chinese ICBM Silos
by | July 2, 2021 | No Comments
Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth Well, look what Decker found. Satellite images taken by Planet and analyzed by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (CNS/MIIS) indicate that China is significantly expanding the number of silos for its arsenal of intercontinental range-ballistic missiles. 120 silos under …
Nuclear Silos in the Chinese Desert
by | June 30, 2021 | No Comments
North Korea’s Uranium Conversion: The History and Process, Part 3
by | June 29, 2021 | No Comments
This is a guest post by my colleague Jamie Withorne. Jamie is a Research Assistant at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Her work focuses on emerging technology, North Korea sanctions evasion, and North Korea’s nuclear fuel cycle. This is the third and final part of a three-part series on North Korea’s uranium conversion …
No Cities
by Michael Krepon | June 28, 2021
The Space Launch Simorgh-asbord
by ACW Podcast | June 24, 2021
The Relevance of the Nuclear Posture Review
by ACW Podcast | June 22, 2021
North Korea’s Uranium Conversion: The History and Process, Part 2
by Catherine Dill | June 22, 2021
After WMD Use, Then What?
by Michael Krepon | June 21, 2021
Two Halls Enter - One Sub Leaves
by Dave Schmerler | June 17, 2021
About
Founded in 2004 by Jeffrey Lewis, Arms Control Wonk was the first blog on arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation. It has since been a home to everything that is "too wonky or obscene" for publication about nuclear weapons. The site now features thirty-plus contributors with an archive of over three thousand articles.
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Decker Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis’s team at CNS have found 119 silos for ICBMs out in the deserts of China. That’s the largest expansion of PRC silos in history, by far, but it isn’t totally clear what is going on, and whether each of these Bouncy Castles of Death represents a new missile or if there are some decoys in the mix…
Aaron and Jeffrey discuss how Decker found these silos out in the middle of the desert, whether each silo has its own missile or if this is a Shell Game with empty silos and decoys, and how this is going to impact arms control incentives in the very near future.
Further Reading:
Jeffrey’s op-ed in Foreign Policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/30/china-nuclear-weapons-silos-arms-control/
Catherine Dill’s article on new test silos at Wuzhai: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1205826/open-silos/
Decker Eveleth and Scott LaFoy’s article on possible silos at Sundian: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1208828/possible-icbm-modernization-underway-at-sundian/
Hans Kristensen’s articles on DF-41 training silos at Jilantai, which constituted the foundational discovery of DF-41 silos in open source research:
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2019/09/china-silo-df41/
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/02/plarf-jilantai-expansion/
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