Avatar photoSejil Reconsidered

Many people have written in objecting to my theory that the Sejil uses liquid propellant steering engines for thrust vector control and, I have to admit, that they have had some very good arguments. Perhaps the most persuasive arguments have been: The boxes hang far below the end of the solid propellant motor’s nozzle and …

Avatar photoEstimative Language, Then and Now

Of the many reasons I have a soft spot for the intelligence community, one is this: imagine how hard it is to produce a document that is both precise and readable. That’s the same challenge I face on the blog, but the IC can’t include gratuituous jokes of a certain kind just to liven things …

Avatar photoClustering Engines, Adding Up the Weights

In an unfortunately title article in Jane’s Intelligence Review (“Safir When Ready: Iran sets its sights on long-range capability”; sorry, its subscription only) I discussed why I interpreted pictures of the test-stand version of a Safir second stage as indicating Iran was developing a new advance in its missile program: a clustering of two engines …

Avatar photoChinese-English Nuclear Security Glossary

The National Academies is having a release party (ok, release event) for the English-Chinese, Chinese-English Nuclear Security Glossary. I saw Ben Rusek and Wu Jun give a joint talk on the subject in Qingdao. Be there or B 2 Sorry, math joke. The Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of the U.S. National …