Arms Control Wonk

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Greetings from Oslo

The Director-General of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that he wants to make sure that “what happens in Oslo, does not stay in Oslo.” He meant the efforts toward disarmament, but good to know none the less when…

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Off to Oslo!

James Acton and I will both be in Oslo this week for a conference, Achieving the Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons, hosted by the Norwegian Foreign Ministry and the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Even if you can’t join…

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IAEA Hints At Pre-2003 Bomb Program

Sorry, I’ve been so quiet lately. Strange combination of being really busy and, when I blog, not being able to finish a post. But ISIS has acquired GOV/2008/4. Although David and Jackie have an excellent write-up and Andy discussed it…

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The IAEA Report on Iran

The Institute for Science and International Security has obtained a copy of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s report on Iran. The report makes it clear that Iran has no intention of addressing the most sensitive of the outstanding questions, namely…

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USA 193 Risk Calculation

In my post yesterday, Don’t Shoot Down USA 193, I voiced my “suspicion … that the expected risk to the ISS crew will be surprisingly competitive with the expected risk to persons on the ground” from the falling satellite. My…

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Don't Shoot Down USA 193

After a getting multiple e-mails about my quotes in Global Security Newswire and the New York Times, let me make my advice to the Bush Administration, who decided to shoot down USA 193, explicit: DON’T FREAKING DO IT. This is…

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The Shot

That’s what Ambassador James Jeffrey’s called the decision to use an an Aegis SM-3 to try to shoot down USA 193 in the next 3-12 days. (Transcript should be posted here ; video at the Pentagon Channel.) Holding the aside…

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Russia's Subtle Shift on Iran

Iran’s ballistic missile tests last week have sparked unusually harsh criticism from Russia. According to the BBC, Russian officials have said the tests raised suspicion over the true aim of [Iran’s] nuclear programme. This is remarkable coming from Moscow, and…

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French Nuclear Posture

In August, French President Nicolas Sarkozy initiated the drafting of a new white paper on defense and national security (Livre Blanc) under the direction of Jean-Claude Mallet. (The embassy has a recent progress report.) Although we had lots of interesting…

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Toward True Security

Oh, and while we are at it with the public service announcements … UCS will release of Toward True Security with Richard Garwin, Frank von Hippel and Lisbeth Gronlund on Wednesday. What: Briefing and discussion about Toward True Security: Ten…