Budapest, Zaporizhzhia and Putin’s threats: the nuclear side of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
My friend and colleague at Monterey, Philipp Bleek, has been growing weary of the frequent mischaracterization of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, particularly as its relates to Ukraine’s renunciation of nuclear weapons. He was kind enough to share his weary reflections…
Quote of the week: “In light of the certain prospect of retaliation there has been literally no chance at all that any sane political authority, in either the United States or the Soviet Union, would consciously choose to start a…
Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could’ve deterred Russia “if it had never given up nuclear weapons.” But they never “had” nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine…
“Our Father, who art in heavenof the full moonand the hollow sunshield from death my parentswhose house stands in the line of fireand who won’t abandon itlike a tomb”—Lyuba Yakimchuk, “Apricots of Donbas” Vladimir Putin has announced that his nuclear…
Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics. Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence,…
Quote of the week: ““What is the only provocation that could bring about the use of nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons. What is the priority target for nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons. What is the only established defense against nuclear weapons? Nuclear…
Quote of the week: “Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves.” ― Confucius Let’s start with the good news. We’re not out of the woods yet, but the war in Ukraine, like those preceding it, is…
What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to….steal a power…
Last September, six months after Russian forces overran and occupied Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), and less than a month after violence threatening the site had escalated, guarded optimism suddenly broke out concerning the station’s nuclear safety prospects. Relief was at…
Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that’s raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and…
Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have written an excellent piece on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China. Jeffrey and Aaron go…
Tom Schelling described escalation as a “curved slope” where you won’t be able to predict when the final drop occurs, and Ukraine targeting an early warning radar in Russia certainly is at least a few steps down that slop. Jeffrey…
Today’s Guest Post is from Josiah Durfee a Middlebury College grad and former Team member in Monterey. He is currently based in the UK where he is getting a Masters of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews. In…
