Years · 2016

February 2016

16 posts

Article

New Warhead Designs

With the benefit of hindsight and magical thinking, the Nuclear Enterprise and the Arms Control Enterprise should have struck a deal during the George W. Bush Administration: ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in return for production of the…

Article

The Coming Backlash

One thing the Nuclear Enterprise and the Arms Control Enterprise have in common is overreach. With every incoming administration, one Enterprise or the other draws up ambitious plans. Hope exceeds circumstance. Overreach invites backlash. President George W. Bush and his…

Article

Iran Launch Forthcoming

Melissa Hanham, Catherine Dill and I have acquired a satellite image from 15 February 2015 that shows Iran is preparing to launch a rocket from the Imam Khomeini Space Center.  We anticipate that Iran will attempt the launch between 1-2 March 2016. Here…

Article

The Michael Ranger Files: Part 3

Andrea Berger over at RUSI has access to 500 pages of court transcripts relating to the prosecution of an arms dealer named Michael Ranger,  who was convicted of brokering the sale of MANPADS  in violation of arms embargoes on North…

Article

The Michael Ranger Files: Part 2

Andrea Berger over at RUSI has access to 500 pages of court transcripts relating to the prosecution of an arms dealer named Michael Ranger,  who was convicted of brokering the sale of MANPADS  in violation of arms embargoes on North…

Article

Back to Business as Usual in South Asia?

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore, hope was in the air. After eight long years of strained relations, the structure of a composite dialogue was revived. Serious exchanges between the Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries and National…

Article

The Michael Ranger Files: Part 1

Andrea Berger over at RUSI has access to 500 pages of court transcripts relating to the prosecution of an arms dealer named Michael Ranger,  who was convicted of brokering the sale of MANPADS  in violation of arms embargoes on North…

Episode36 min

The North Korean Missile Threat and Alliance Reassurance

The DPRK launched a small satellite using its latest SLV, the Kwangmyŏngsŏng. In response, the United States and its regional allies deployed missile defense systems to defend their population from the DPRK threat. One problem: the systems deployed had no…

Article

Convoy Directions from the 816th Launch Brigade

A light yet wonky Friday post at the end of (another) heavy North Korea week… After my post last week on a special Spring Festival PLA Rocket Force training exercise, several colleagues helpfully pointed out where the training exercise might…