This post is from February 2016. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

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Convoy Directions from the 816th Launch Brigade

A light yet wonky Friday post at the end of (another) heavy North Korea week… After my post last week on a special Spring Festival PLA Rocket Force training exercise, several colleagues helpfully pointed out where the training exercise might have occurred.

I made a map last night illustrating the possible routes a convoy of DF-31 or DF-21 TELs might take from the 816th launch brigade main base in Tonghua to the identified training site. (You’ll note the Google Maps road overlays don’t quite match the satellite imagery).

After watching the video for the nth time, I could not reconcile one part of the route shown in the video to the direct route from Tonghua I mapped out (shown as Route A in the map).

Convoy 1

Of course, segments in the video may be out of sequence, and as Mark Stokes and I discussed on Twitter it is possible that the video shows the launch brigade traveling to multiple exercise areas, perhaps even for multiple exercises.

After some communal searching at the office, I found an alternate route the convoy may have taken, perhaps to simulate different road conditions (shown as Route B in the map).

What does the crowd think on this one?

Catherine Dill

Writing on ACW 2015–2021

Catherine Dill is a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Her work includes using open source tools for defense and nonproliferation research, geospatial analysis, trade data analysis, understanding China’s nuclear and missile programs, studying illicit procurement networks in Asia, and industry outreach and training on strategic trade controls. She holds a MA in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a BS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.

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