Arms Control Wonk

 

Has anyone written a great book that covers the complex relationship between religion and the Bomb? Please help me out here. I can’t think of one. The subject is so rich for so many reasons, that whoever writes brilliantly about how religion has shaped the approach/avoidance of nuclear weapons in different societies deserves to become the next Richard Rhodes. Book projects are hereby solicited.

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Some of the most informative and provocative reporting on nuclear proliferation and policy to be found these days emerges from the keyboard of the Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon. More’s the pity, then, when he seems to be cutting corners. Tuesday’s article on Jon Byong-ho and Yun Ho-jin — the Dynamic Duo of North Korean missile and nuclear exports — looks like one of those times.

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B61 computer simulation. Image credit: Sandia National Laboratory

Growing up in Albuquerque, New Mexico during the Cold War meant that I had a lot of friends whose parents worked at Sandia National Labs (SNL) doing “nuclear bomb things”, or whatever vague description they’d get out of their parents about what was paying the bills. Things are somewhat more transparent these days, of course. For example, without revealing anything classified, the lab and the NNSA regularly provide updates on various LEPs; this year, SNL revealed some specifics regarding their refurbishment work on the B61 mod 7 and 11.

Over the past year or so, the B61 has been a topic of interest for several reasons. For one thing, the B61 was a prominent star in the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, which mentioned plans for “a full-scope B61 LEP study and follow-on activities”, as well as the intention to make the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter capable of carrying it.

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Our friends Robert Schmucker and Markus Schiller send along a short note on Iran’s Qiam missile, concluding that it is a test bed for a new guidance system that will eventually find its way in the Sejil.

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Saudi Arabian Uranium Enrichment?

A couple of weeks ago I summarized here that Saudi Arabia was moving ahead with plans to do nuclear power and that there were some potential issues.

In July, after having read that some weighty nuclear industry companies were trying to dip their toes into Arabian sands, I talked this over with some people who know their way around Riyadh.

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Toward Smaller Nuclear Forces

There’s a serious new study by a group of authors in the United States and Russia being published in the coming days that calls for deeper cuts in nuclear weapons—well beyond those envisioned in the New Start treaty pending before the Senate.

The new study is based on extensive computer modeling of a nuclear war, and it suggests strongly that both the United States and Russia could preserve deterrence with fewer warheads and launchers than under New Start. The current treaty calls for 1,550 warheads and 700 active launchers on each side. But the computer modeling showed that further reductions to 1,000 warheads and 500 launchers—or, even lower levels—would not weaken security on either side.

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The Ayatollah Shuts the Door, Again

It’s been a busy week or so on the Iran front. Just getting caught up may take a little while. Let’s start with the diplomacy. Technology will be tackled in a follow-up post.

Starting in late June, there were some hints and suggestions from Tehran that they’d like to re-open negotiations with the West on the nuclear issue, but delivered in the least promising way possible. President Ahmadinejad announced that talks would be held, subject to a series of conditions. Also, as a “punishment” for the other side, talks would be delayed until September. It seems that any conciliatory initiative must be wrapped in aggressive language to be acceptable at home.

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China’s Space Power in 2010

So the 2010 iteration of the Department of Defense’s China Military Power report is out. The 2009 version came out on March 24, 2009, about two months after Inauguration Day, so this is probably the first one for which the Obama administration’s political appointees ran the show from start to finish. And obviously, intelligence assessments do change from time to time, as ACW readers know well. So how does China’s space power this year compare to 2009?

First, there’s a title change that hasn’t got a ton of attention, at least in the things I’ve read. The new title is “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.” The old one was “Military Power of the People’s Republic of China.” According to the legislative language cited in the beginning matter of both reports, the 2010 defense authorization bill mandated the title change and asked for an additional section on “United States-China engagement and cooperation on security matters during the period covered by the report, including through United States-China military-to-military contacts, and the United States strategy for such engagement and cooperation in the future.” The net result of this authorization tweak seems to have been that the 2009 report’s “Special Topic” section on China’s global military engagement was dropped, and a description of bilateral mil-to-mil contacts was added. If Congress’s intent in making these changes was to soften the report to placate the Chinese and smooth the way for improved military ties, mission accomplished.

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Nuclear Optimism

No country has been more optimistic about the atom than India. Most Indians believe in nuclear energy and in the ability of their nuclear establishment to deliver it efficiently and cheaply. Indian strategic analysts tend to be extremely confident, which often results in a dismissive attitude toward Pakistan. Indian government leaders have been proud about their ambivalence toward the Bomb, while being optimistic about the benefits of minimal nuclear deterrence. In Pakistan, on the other hand, deterrence pessimism reigns. This helps explain why India has been so relaxed about nuclear weapon-related issues, while Pakistan takes them so seriously.

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Now We’re Just Negotiating The Price

It appears that several Republicans — including Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) — have been hinting that they will vote for the New START treaty, if only the Obama Administration were to add another $10 billion to its $80 billion request over 10 years for the nuclear weapons complex.

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