Two weeks ago, I had the pleasure of serving my second term as the Director-General of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). I played my role in a simulation set up by the CTBTO’s Capacity Development Initiative (CDI). As last year, the gameplay felt realistic, and the outcome vote fell within what one …
What Went Wrong with Arms Control?
by | 2013-07-30 | 15 Comments
In the mid-1980s, many smart people predicted the death of arms control. Thomas Schelling was one of them. Others included Richard Haass, Albert Carnesale, Les Gelb, and Zbigniew Brzezinski. US-Soviet relations were in terrible shape. The White House and the Kremlin were talking past each other. Uber-hawks in the Reagan administration compiled a long list …
DPRK Armistice Parade
by | 2013-07-28 | 37 Comments
Greetings from Hiroshima, Japan — or, as I like to say, within range of a Nodong. As you can see, North Korea appears to have paraded a Hwaseong-13 (KN-08) without the camouflage we saw last time. The Scuds got a makeover, too. This is now consistent with previous parade appearance of Nodongs and Musudans. I …
Inferred vs. Demonstrable Deterrence
by | 2013-07-22 | 25 Comments
The Stimson Center will release an edited volume in September comparing and contrasting deterrence against nuclear and space warfare. Here’s a preview. Nuclear deterrence and space deterrence have common elements as well as distinct differences. No difference is more striking than the visibility of deterrence capabilities in one domain and its lack of visibility in …
