From the Abqaiq attack to True Promise II: Iranian, Houthi, Israeli and American missiles and interceptors, tracked from wreckage, video and imagery as it happened.
On September 14, several explosions rocked the Khurais oilfield as well as the Abqaiq refinery, one of Saudi Arabia’s most vital petrochemical installations. Several hours later, the Houthis claimed that they had targeted both facilities with ten drones as part…
Iran may have just rocketed oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The ACW trio asks what else is new, after time spent analyzing Qiam strikes on Riyadh. With tensions increasing in the Gulf, and questions about a potential US strike to punish…
More than a week has passed since the attacks on Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais. While many details about the attack remain murky, at least some of the fog of war seems to have been lifted. The US, the…
As it turns out, the ACW trio thinks that Iran’s missiles are accurate. Super accurate. As Anne flies across the United States, Aaron and Jeffrey spoke about Iran’s ballistic missile strikes Ain Assad Air Base in Iraq, why the strike…
The war in Yemen has seen the highest usage of ballistic missiles since the Iraq War, and the highest usage of ballistic missile defense assets in any conflict, offering a preview of any future conflicts with Iran. Aaron and Scott…
We have data! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through the new primary source data to figure out if either Iran’s missile raid or Israeli’s missile defense efforts were effective. This appears to be the first time that successful wartime ballistic missile…
Iran just launched what may be the largest single missile raid in history, and Israel claims no Israeli deaths. While we’re still very early in the news cycle, Jeffrey and Aaron start picking apart the information available to look at…
Following Israel’s twelve-day bombing campaign against Iran’s leaders, nuclear facilities and missile program, two key questions have been how deep is Israel’s missile defense interceptor magazine, and how long Israel can sustain relatively high intercept rates against the retaliatory Iranian…
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Operation Rough Rider, the U.S. air campaign against the Houthis conducted from March to May, 2025, we have been thinking about Houthi missiles more than usual. A surprising detail which emerged…
This is the first in a series of posts I am writing on True Promise II to complement the piece I did on ABM expenditures during the 12 Day War. I hope it will also serve as a corrective to…
Introduction This is the second in a series of blog posts I’m writing on True Promise II, the October 2024 Iranian missile attack against Israel. This post focuses on the U.S. and Israeli missile defense efforts, building on my previous…
This is the longer analysis of a news story (“Patriot Missile Involved in Bahrain Blast Likely U.S. Operated, Analysis Finds,”) we did with Jonathan Landay, M.B. Pell, and Travis Hartman at Reuters on the Patriot incident in Bahrain on March…
The New York Times has a second story by Christiaan Triebert, John Ismay, Alexander Cardia, Leanne Abraham and Azmat Khanout that concludes … well, the title says it all: “New Evidence Further Implicates U.S. Missiles in Strikes That Killed 21…
