Archives for May 2020

Michael KreponA Flock of Black Swans Comes Home to Roost

Lyric of the week: “I was a freedom rider When we thought the South had won Virginia in the spring of ’61 I sat down on the Greyhound that was bound for Mississippi My mother asked me if that ride was worth my life And when the shots rang out I never heard the sound …

ACW PodcastRenewed Nuclear Testing in… the U.S.?

John Hudson and Paul Sonne at the Washington Post broke the story that Trump administration officials have discussed conducting additional nuclear tests in the United States.  Jeffrey and Anne discuss why this is a bad idea, how this would disproportionately benefit U.S. nuclear competitors, and the primarily political (not technical) utility of a “rapid” nuclear …

ACW PodcastWhat’s Up with Turkey’s S400?

Turkey previously announced that its S400 air defense regiment would be activated and in service by the end of April, 2020, after its delivery from Russia in 2019. Since it is now May 2020, with no S400 deployment in sight, Aaron and Scott sat down with Rob Lee for an in-depth talk about what could …

ACW PodcastRenewed Nuclear Testing in China?

The Wall Street Journal reported that “China might be secretly conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power” based on the State Department’s 2020 Annual Compliance Report, but that is not quite what the report actually says. Jeffrey and Anne sit down to talk about open-source tracking of the Lop Nur nuclear testing site, the …

Michael KreponThe Open Skies Treaty Bites the Dust

Lyric of the week: Who knows where the time goes? And I am not alone while my love is near me I know it will be so until it’s time to go So come the storms of winter and then The birds in spring again I have no fear of time For who knows how …

Joshua PollackChina’s DF-26: A Hot-Swappable Missile?

By Joshua H. Pollack and Scott LaFoy P.W. Singer and Ma Xiu have an important story in PopSci with a nifty find about China’s DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which carries either nuclear or conventional payloads. It goes some way toward resolving a debate among English-speaking analysts about how these missiles are operated. Here, we …

Michael KreponGeorge W. Bush and Dick Cheney

Quote of the week: “America prepared for the wrong kind of war. It prepared for a new 9/11, but instead a virus came.” – Dominique Moisi Dear readers: I’m on the home stretch of a book in progress tentatively titled “Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace.” Here’s an out-take: At the outset of his presidency, …

ACW PodcastIran’s Satellite and the IRGC Space Program

Iran launched a small satellite into orbit. But more importantly, it was Iran’s revolutionary guards, not the civilian space program, that did the launching — and with a new solid rocket motor as the second stage. Fabian Hinz joins Jeffrey to talk about the IRGC space program and break down its most recent launch. Support …

Michael KreponTrump’s National Security Strategy Revisited

Lyric of the week: Don’t you ever be sad Lean on me, when times are bad When the day comes and you’re down In a river of trouble and about to drown Just hold on, I’m comin’ Hold on, I’m comin’ –Sam and Dave, “Hold On, I’m Coming” (Motown classic and possible Joe Biden rally …

ACW PodcastRussia’s Nudol Anti-Satellite Missile Test

In mid-April, Russia tested a direct ascent anti-satellite missile (DA ASAT), the Nudol/PL19, against a point in space. Anti-satellite weapons are an old favorite of the pod, so Anne, Aaron, and Jeffrey meet to discuss the history of anti-satellite weapons, the U.S. negotiating strategy that led to the spread of hit-to-kill and anti-satellite weapons, and …

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