Years

2014

142 posts

Article

The Psychology of Deterrence

Henry Kissinger wrote two early, influential books on the Bomb: Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (1957) and The Necessity for Choice (1960). I bought these used books at bargain-basement prices at the Princeton University bookstore. The name on the inside…

Episode41 min

Podcast: Iran and the JPOA

Can the West verify a deal with Iran over its nuclear program? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Ken Pollack’s oped in the New York Times and ask whether the international community should focus more on inspections or “breakout” times. The discussion includes our…

Article

A Cessna-sized Hole in the Iron Curtain, Revisited

Mathias Rust probably questioned his decision to fly again to Moscow. In 1987, the then-19-year-old West German national breached the Soviet Union’s border in a rented single-engine Cessna, flew nearly 550 miles through what what supposed to be the country’s…

Episode24 min

Missiles on Parade: The Saudi DF-3

Jeffrey and I discuss the Saudi decision to unveil the Kingdom’s DF-3 missiles. The conversation begins with a brief discussion about the Saudi missile program and includes our thoughts on the likely reasons for the decision to bring the Saudi…

Article

Open Skies

On March 24, 1985, Major Arthur D. Nicholson, Jr. was shot in the chest by a Soviet sentry while observing a tank shed near Ludwigslust, in East Germany. The 1947 Potsdam Agreement for the military occupation and reconstruction of Germany…

Episode22 min

Will North Korea Test a Nuclear Weapon?

Is North Korea about to test (another) nuclear weapon? Or perhaps more than one? Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein discuss the possibilities.

Article

A Gordian Knot: Missiles in the Gulf

Saudi Arabia made headlines recently, after it publicly paraded two DF-3s for the first time. The Kingdom secretly purchased these missiles from China in 1987, but has hitherto opted not to show them off in public. The consensus is that…

Article

Ukraine and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum

My friend and colleague at Monterey, Philipp Bleek, has been growing weary of the frequent mischaracterization of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, particularly as its relates to Ukraine’s renunciation of nuclear weapons. He was kind enough to share his weary reflections…

Article

Russia and the INF Treaty

Over the weekend, Foreign Policy posted a column of mine on Russia’s compliance, or lack thereof, with the 1987 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).  The short version is that, while the the treaty is loosely worded, the Russians appear…

Article

A Normal, Nuclear Pakistan

Mark Fitzpatrick is a highly respected, careful chronicler of nuclear proliferation. His monograph of A.Q. Khan’s activities is required reading. So, too, is his latest, Overcoming Pakistan’s Nuclear Dangers, in which he recommends that Pakistan be treated as a normal…