President Obama has delivered another thoughtful, balanced speech, this time at West Point. His commencement address lent structure to his foreign and national-security policy decisions. It was long overdue, and essential after an exasperated, revealing response last month in Manila to a press question about America’s retrenchment in the world. As reported in the New …
Archives for May 2014
The Sensor Gap and Open Skies
by | May 22, 2014 | 5 Comments
Is there a sensor gap? Today, Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the Treaty on Open Skies, Russia’s new spy plane, the sensor gap, compliance concerns, and the “taxi” option. The conversation begins with a general discussion about the Russian spy plane, before pivoting to a more general discussion about the continued value of the Treaty for …
Pakistan’s Choice
by | May 20, 2014 | 24 Comments
Pakistan has been failing for a long time. There have been periods of economic growth, backed up by foreign patrons – mostly the United States and increasingly China — but for the most part, Pakistan’s economy and internal security continue to slide. Successive military and civilian leaders have sidestepped inherited problems or made them worse. …
Note from a Small Organization
by | May 16, 2014 | 3 Comments
Hey, look, the Government of Burma has officially responded to a pair of articles by Catherine Dill and I describing a suspect defense facility near Pauk: Speaking on May 15, U Ye Htut said he strongly objected to report. “But I do not think we need to pay attention to such a small organisation,” said …
Burma’s Suspicious Defense Facility
by | May 15, 2014 | No Comments
What is Burma building in the jungle? In this week’s podcast, Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Jeffrey’s and Catherine Dill’s two recent pieces on Burma’s very large – and very suspicious – facility in Pauk. The conversation begins with a discussion about the facility and then pivots to the Obama administration’s outreach to the Burmese government. …
Crime and Punishment
by | May 14, 2014 | 14 Comments
A dedicated band of anti-arms controllers, led by Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle, sought to foil President Ronald Reagan’s pursuit of nuclear arms reduction treaties with Moscow. One tactic was to publish charge sheets of Soviet treaty violations. For example, the Kremlin constructed a large phased array radar …
Additional Thoughts on Burma
by | May 12, 2014 | 18 Comments
Catherine Dill and I have published a pair of articles concerning allegations that Burma’s generals are building a chemical weapons facility near a place called Pauk. The article published on the CNS website analyzes satellite images of the site, while the other in Foreign Policy explains why we ought to care. The short version is …
The Psychology of Deterrence
by | May 8, 2014 | 10 Comments
Henry Kissinger wrote two early, influential books on the Bomb: Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (1957) and The Necessity for Choice (1960). I bought these used books at bargain-basement prices at the Princeton University bookstore. The name on the inside cover suggests that I was the beneficiary of Klaus Knorr’s decision to thin out his …
Podcast: Iran and the JPOA
by | May 7, 2014 | 5 Comments
Can the West verify a deal with Iran over its nuclear program? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss Ken Pollack’s oped in the New York Times and ask whether the international community should focus more on inspections or “breakout” times. The discussion includes our thoughts on Iranian nuclear decision-making, the potential for post-deal “spoilers”, and finishes with a plea …
A Cessna-sized Hole in the Iron Curtain, Revisited
by | May 7, 2014 | 5 Comments
Mathias Rust probably questioned his decision to fly again to Moscow. In 1987, the then-19-year-old West German national breached the Soviet Union’s border in a rented single-engine Cessna, flew nearly 550 miles through what what supposed to be the country’s most heavily guarded airspace, and landed on a bridge near the Red Square. After a …
