The Defense Intelligence Agency—in A Primer on the Future Threat, The Decades Ahead: 1999-2020 (SECRET/NO FORN) from July 1999—concludes North Korea’s nuclear weapons will weigh no less than 650-750 kg:
In the near term, it is unlikely that the North Korean nuclear weapons program can achieve nuclear yield from a 100 kg device. An early-generation warhead weighing 650-750 kg is the best Pyongyang could achieve.
Such a warhead would, presumably, require a test. The CIA concluded tests are unnecessary for simple fission devices.
Lieutenant General Patrick M. Hughes, (USA-Ret.) authored the report while Director of DIA from 1996-1999.
FAIR’s Seth Ackerman notes Hughes was “widely believed” to be a key source of classified material leaked to the Washington Times’ Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough.
Excerpts from the report—including this one—were published in Scarborough’s Rumsfeld’s War. I may post a .pdf of the document if I have time later this week.
You know, I’ve always been pissed that no one acknowledges that Scarborough published classified information and that he was not pillaried for that. I even called the FBI and the DOD IG to tell them, and no action. Just unbelievable. I should do a post on the CB stuff he put in there. Funny thing was, he didn’t print the Iraq CBW section – just about everyone else is in there though.
One reader asks “Is 650 kg heavy? what does that mean in terms of missile range?”
650-750 kg is the bare minimum to place a warhead on a Taepo Dong 2. See my post on the subject.
If you didn’t care how much plutonium you use, why wouldn’t it be possible to build a linear implosion setup slightly boron poisoned to be auto-catalytic – to reduce the implosion time and quality constraints somewhat, AND end up with an extremely lightweight warhead overall?
It would mean that north korea would only be able to build perhaps 3 bombs instead of 6 maybe, but I think it would allow them to use their missiles.
am I mistaken?