DPRK Sets Date Range for Launch
posted Thursday March 12, 2009 under north-korea, missile-defense by geoffrey_fordenThe ever alert wonk-reader, Allen Thomson, has pointed out that North Korea has stated it will attempt its satellite launch between April 4 and 8th. (Thanks Allen!) Hopefully, they will release a notification about where the stay-clear zones will be, which will give us some indication of the capabilities of their rocket. (I’ve been running some calculations of this which I hope to post here soon.) Stay tuned!
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This from Reuters (ICAO has been notified too). Presumably Notices to Mariners and Airmen will be out soon.
“Lending a degree of credibility to Pyongyang’s pledge to stage a rocket launch, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said it had been contacted by the North about its plans.
“We have received a letter and it contains dates, times and coordinates,” Lee Adamson, a spokesman with the IMO said by telephone from London, confirming the dates as April 4-8.
He said a notice would soon be issued to maritime vessels, adding that the tests were scheduled to take place during daylight hours.
— Allen Thomson · Mar 12, 10:15 AM ·
To whomever maintains FCNL Nuclear Calendar: Take note!
— Josh · Mar 12, 11:24 AM ·
Do you have any sources you could point us toward? I’ve not found any images or sources of data beyond the Astronautix webpage, to obtain prop info, weights dimensions etc…. Are the DPRK launch vehicles derived from R-11/17 (SCUD)?
— Andrew Tubbiolo · Mar 12, 11:28 AM ·
The coordinates of the first and second stage closure areas are now at
http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2009/space-090312-imo01.htm
— Allen Thomson · Mar 12, 04:16 PM ·
IMO – International Maritime Organization
Ref. T2-OSS/2.7.1
SN.1/Circ.278
12 March 2009
SAFETY OF NAVIGATION
INFORMATION ON THE LAUNCH OF
AN EXPERIMENTAL COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE
“KWANGMYONGSONG NO.2”
At the request of the Government of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the information contained at annex, on the launch of an experimental communications satellite “Kwangmyongsong No.2”, detailing the launch period and dangerous area coordinates, is brought to the attention of Member Governments and international organizations.
***
ANNEX
The due date and dangerous area coordinates for the launch of a satellite are as follows:
1 Due date and timing
Date: 04 to 08 April 2009
Timing: 0200-0700(UTC) daily
2 Coordinates
2.1 Dangerous area No.1
1) 40o 41’ 40” N 135o 34’ 45” E
2) 40o 27’ 22” N 138o 30’ 40” E
3) 40o 16’ 34” N 138o 30’ 22” E
4) 40o 30’ 52” N 135o 34’ 26” E
2.2 Dangerous area No.2
1) 34o 35’ 42” N 164o 40’ 42” E
2) 31o 22’ 22” N 172o 18’ 36” E
3) 29o 55’ 53” N 172o 13’ 47” E
4) 33o 09’ 16” N 164o 35’ 42” E
— Wonkmeister · Mar 12, 07:07 PM ·
Andrew—try this.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/missile.htm
— Tim Brown · Mar 12, 08:39 PM ·
From http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/library/news/2009/space-090312-imo01.htm
2.1 Dangerous area No.1
1) 40o 41’ 40” N 135o 34’ 45” E
2) 40o 27’ 22” N 138o 30’ 40” E
3) 40o 16’ 34” N 138o 30’ 22” E
4) 40o 30’ 52” N 135o 34’ 26” E
2.2 Dangerous area No.2
1) 34o 35’ 42” N 164o 40’ 42” E
2) 31o 22’ 22” N 172o 18’ 36” E
3) 29o 55’ 53” N 172o 13’ 47” E
4) 33o 09’ 16” N 164o 35’ 42” E
— Henry H · Mar 12, 09:58 PM ·
All in all, not really surprising – this is exactly the same timeframe as in May/June/July 2006 from “first observation of launch preparations” to “launch date”…
— Jochen Schischka · Mar 13, 06:26 AM ·
Based on the posted hazard zones at Globalsecurity.org the first stage comes down about 650 km from the launch site, and the second stage about 3600 km. The staging events would then take place at about 2.3 and 5.5 km/s.
This gives a vacuum delta-v of the first stage of about 3.5-3.6 km/s each, and about 3.4-3.5 km/s for the second stage. This is less than expected for a second stage, but if the vehicle were used as a two-stage ICBM, with a warhead 30-40% the weight of the third stage plus payload, you’d have an ICBM capable of hitting Alaska for certain and possibly other places on the west coast of the US.
This isn’t much of a threat unless the warhead is atomic, which might require a bigger rocket and smaller warhead than North Korea has. We may learn something about the size of the rocket soon, if it doesn’t just crash in the ocean again, but the size of North Korean atom bombs seems to be completely unknown.
— Murray Anderson · Mar 13, 08:56 AM ·