Alex Ward and others at the Wall Street Journal reported on the details of a Pentagon review process that has halted Ukraine’s ability to conduct long-range strikes into Russia with ATACMs, Storm Shadow and other systems that need US targeting data. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about what we already knew, what we didn’t, and what …
Ninety Percent Of The Time, The Missile Works Every Time: Iranian Missile Failure Rates During True Promise II
by | 2025-08-22 | 1 Comment
This is the first in a series of posts I am writing on True Promise II to complement the piece I did on ABM expenditures during the 12 Day War. I hope it will also serve as a corrective to some poor quality information that has been circulating since the start of the missile exchanges …
Fly Burevestnik Fly!
by | 2025-08-22 | No Comments
The Slack channel noticed that Russia was gearing up to test the SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile (aka Burevestnik), which Jeffrey and co. confirmed with satellite images. Reuters picked it up, noting how awkward all this was coming, as it did, just as Putin flew to Alaska to meet with Donald Trump. Aaron and Jeffrey …
Mad Max MANPADS in Yemen
by | 2025-08-21 | No Comments
Given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and Operation Rough Rider, the U.S. air campaign against the Houthis conducted from March to May, 2025, we have been thinking about Houthi missiles more than usual. A surprising detail which emerged in reporting about the Trump administration’s decision to end the air campaign was the effectiveness …
