As much as I hate to say this, folks are misreading the most recent NIE. Yes it says that Iran halted its clandestine weapons program, at least for a time, in fall 2003. And, yes that suggests that Iran’s leaders are sensitive to pressure. But the halt doesn’t given Iran a clean bill of health, …
Persbo on Disablement
by | 2007-12-09 | 2 Comments
Andreas Persbo has a great post on disabling the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon: It is going to be chilly in North Korea this week. Temperatures at the Yongbyon nuclear complex will hover around zero degrees Celsius, but it will feel colder. There were relatively few clouds around on Wednesday, but they are assembling on …
Don't Politicize the NIE
by | 2007-12-07 | 14 Comments
Well, the right has begun to push back against the NIE on Iran. The New York Times and Washington Post — Administration cheerleaders during the run-up to the Iraq War — lent their pages to conservative assaults on the NIE by John Bolton and Gary Milhollin, two guys who were absolutely wrong about Iraq and …
Can We Verify NORK Pu Declaration?
by | 2007-12-07 | 8 Comments
Yesterday’s news that Bush wrote to Kim, reminded me of some back-of-the-envelope calculations I did a couple of months ago on verifying North Korean plutonium production. After all, when (I’ll be optimistic and refrain from saying ‘if’) North Korea submits its declaration, the fun of verifying it will start. One thing the US/IAEA (delete as …
