Scott Sagan argues very convincingly in the pages of Survival that the United States should adopt a declaratory policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons (Scott D. Sagan, “The Case for No First Use,” Survival 51:3, June–July 2009, pp. 163–182). Particularly compelling, to me, is his demolition of “calculated ambiguity” using a case study …
Practicalities of Interdicting WMD—Part 3
by | 2009-06-18 | 9 Comments
Click on the image for a larger version In a typical one hour period, five US low earth orbit satellites pass over the Port of Rajin Yesterday, I pointed out that the only way for the West to tell the difference between a cargo container full of uranium gas centrifuges and a container full of …
Practicalities of Interdicting WMD—Part 2
by | 2009-06-17 | 6 Comments
The Ports of North Korea Yesterday, we started to get some ballpark numbers relevant to interdicting WMD shipments. Today, we are going to continue to try to get a feel for the problem of determining whether or not there is proscribed material onboard a ship. The first step, I think, is to considering the volume …
Did North Korea Test a Nuke?
by | 2009-06-17 | 14 Comments
I’d bet on it. But a recent statement by the ODNI is raising all sorts of eyebrows: The U.S. Intelligence Community assesses that North Korea probably conducted an underground nuclear explosion in the vicinity of P’unggye on May 25, 2009. The explosion yield was approximately a few kilotons. Analysis of the event continues. [emphasis added] …
