Avatar photoTurkey’s Syria Policy: Why Seymour Hersh Got it Wrong

On 6 April 2014, Seymour Hersh published “The Red Line and the Rat Line” in the London Review of Books. The piece builds on his previous article, “Whose Sarin?,” which calls into question the White House’s framing of the 21 August 2013 chemical weapons attack in the Damascus neighborhood of Ghouta. The latest article accuses …

Avatar photoCrowdsourcing Russian ICBMs

Russian ICBMs NATO RUSSIA Warheads Stages Fuel Basing Range (km) No. SS-18 Mod 5 (SATAN) RS-20/R-36M2 (Voyevoda) 10 2 +PBV Liquid Silo 10,000+ About 50 SS-19 Mod 3 (STILLETO) RS-18/UR-100NUTTH 6 2 +PBV Liquid Silo 9,000+ About 50 SS-25 (SICKEL) RS-12M 1 3 +PBV Solid Road-mobile 11,000 More than 150 SS-27 Mod 1 RS-12M2 (Topol …

Avatar photoMassive Retaliation

Massive retaliation is a siren song that appeals to states that cannot afford a nuclear competition but can afford to let an adversary cross the nuclear threshold first. It’s a money-saver, and it sounds persuasive, until the threat of massive retaliation is actually tested — when a nation’s nuclear bluff is called. What national leader …

Avatar photoJapan’s Pu and the Cookie Problem

Regular readers know I love public policy, especially perverse effects.  One of my favorite perverse effects is what I call “the cookie” problem after the plight of a beleaguered friend.  Let’s say you’ve come thisclose to cheating on a spouse or partner — but you don’t. Then you tell your spouse or partner about your …