Iran in Geo
Over the past two years, we’ve had a project at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies to look at Iran’s space programs. For the past year or so, my partner-in-crime has been Jim Lamson. Now Jim, and John Krzyzaniak…
Arms Control Wonk
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Atomic Steppe
Verse of the week: “Restrained pulse of moaning steppe — With waves of pain and grief. The drops of rain? Crushing seas? Those are mothers’ trembling tears. Here’s a place of whispering spell — Abai. Earth’s bleeding chest. Death’s stealing…
Putin’s Use of A Nuclear Weapon Against Ukraine Would Backfire
Quote of the week: ““What is the only provocation that could bring about the use of nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons. What is the priority target for nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons. What is the only established defense against nuclear weapons? Nuclear…
Test Three Missiles…
…get a pod. North Korea has conducted three (and, as I’m typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as “satellite” system tests. Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests,…
The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence
Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics. Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence,…
All Wars Must End
Quote of the week: “The quickest way to end war is to lose it.” — George Orwell All wars must end, or so we have been told by Gideon Rose and Fred Iklé. But how will Russia’s military campaign in…
ICBM Testing at Sunan
Update: North Korea conducted a failed test of a presumed Hwasong-17 out of Sunan the other day. So, I guess we won’t be getting pictures. An item in the JoongAng Daily caught my eye. A South Korean official claims North…
Changes at Punggye-ri
Jeffrey Lewis and Dave Schmerler Construction is occurring at North Korea’s nuclear test site for the first time since North Korea announced the closure and dismantlement of the site in spring 2018. In April 2018, Kim Jong Un announced an end…
Hold Steady
Verse of the week: “Who has invented our enmity? Who prescribed us/ hatred of each other? Who has armed us against each other/ with the death of the world? Who has appointed me such anger/ that I should desire the…
Putin Gives the Mad Man Theory a Try
“Our Father, who art in heavenof the full moonand the hollow sunshield from death my parentswhose house stands in the line of fireand who won’t abandon itlike a tomb”—Lyuba Yakimchuk, “Apricots of Donbas” Vladimir Putin has announced that his nuclear…