In all the excitement and hubbub about Iran’s launch of the Omid satellite yesterday, there was other news that should warrant our attention. North Korea has, apparently, been seen shipping large missile bodies to its Western launch range. While described as a “Tae’podong 3” or upgraded Tae’podong 2, it already seems like old technology some how. What we should look for is signs that the North has imported technology from Iran and is moving away from stacking SCUD-type missiles on top of each other.
I’ve heard some interesting comments about this launch though I can’t seem to find the references when I need them. In particular, I’ve heard that launching from its new Western launch site would allow both the first stage to fall well short of Japan but also allow the upper stages to be considered already “in space” by the time they pass over Japan. I’m uncertain as to the space law involved but I would have assumed that the only meaningful milestone would have been for the satellite to already have reached orbital speed by the time it crosses Japan. Somehow I doubt that is will be the case. Furthermore, if North Korea does use a third stage, as it did with the Tae’podong 1, then the second stage would almost certainly not be “in space” as it over flew Japan.
I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they launched south, perhaps into a sunsynchronous orbit.
One would think you would need permission from the overflight country, especially considering falling sub-orbital missile body debris.
It is thoughtful the Norks now consider the Japanese as they continue to test their BM capabilities.
You can bet the target zone is not in the vicinity of Alaska…
Speaking of North Korea, it appears that Chris Hill is going to be tapped as ambassador to Iraq by the Obama administration.
This seems to fit quite well into how i understand the Taep’oDong-program:
The first shot was called Taep’oDong-1, the second Taep’oDong-2 and the third will be Taep’oDong-3.
Taep’oDong-1 (1998) was a multistaged missile of a type that i’d call the Taep’oDong-A (1.25m first stage + 0.88m second stage; this looks to me like it could have been influenced by the iraqi “Al-Tamuz”-project).
Taep’oDong-2 (2006) and probably also Taep’oDong-3 (2009?) was/will be, like i’d call it, Taep’oDong-Bs (i’d expect this to be more or less identical to the Safir IRILV: 1.25m first stage + 1.25m upper stage; there was, apart from the NoDong-engine which was obviously not yet available in 1989, another quite similar iraqi project named “Al-Kharief”).
But since i still haven’t seen any pictures of the Taep’odong-2-shot, this is of course mere speculation.
Let’s hope that there will be many pretty photos of the Taep’oDong-3 for comparison…
there is something wrong, today the news over internet say that the launch will occour in the east
SEOUL, Feb 13 (Reuters) – North Korea has been assembling its longest-range missile at an east coast launch base and could test-fire the rocket by the end of this month at the earliest, a leading South Korean daily reported on Friday.
otherwise, they wanna use the old launchpad for the first missile and the new one, in spring/ summer for the other
i’d be “disappointed” if they won’t use the new launchpad