This post is from February 2009. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

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Let’s not forget North Korea…

In all the excitement and hubbub about Iran’s launch of the Omid satellite yesterday, there was other news that should warrant our attention. North Korea has, apparently, been seen shipping large missile bodies to its Western launch range. While described as a “Tae’podong 3” or upgraded Tae’podong 2, it already seems like old technology some how. What we should look for is signs that the North has imported technology from Iran and is moving away from stacking SCUD-type missiles on top of each other.

I’ve heard some interesting comments about this launch though I can’t seem to find the references when I need them. In particular, I’ve heard that launching from its new Western launch site would allow both the first stage to fall well short of Japan but also allow the upper stages to be considered already “in space” by the time they pass over Japan. I’m uncertain as to the space law involved but I would have assumed that the only meaningful milestone would have been for the satellite to already have reached orbital speed by the time it crosses Japan. Somehow I doubt that is will be the case. Furthermore, if North Korea does use a third stage, as it did with the Tae’podong 1, then the second stage would almost certainly not be “in space” as it over flew Japan.

Geoff Forden

Writing on ACW 2008–2010

Dr. Forden has been at MIT since 2000 where his research includes the analysis of Russian and Chinese space systems as well as trying to understand how proliferators acquire the know-how and industrial infrastructure to produce weapons of mass destruction.

All posts by Geoff Forden