No, it’s not a rocket.
An Israeli television station has published a number of satellite images of a launch pad at the Imam Khomeini Space Center near Semnan in Iran that purport to show a new Iranian missile.
One problem: It’s not a rocket.
A simple understanding of how the launch pad works quickly demonstrates that the object in the image cannot be a missile. It is an architectural element on the gantry, possibly an elevator.
I love satellite photographs, but you have to interpret them in context. It’s important to model the whole facility and understand how it operates. Otherwise, you make big mistakes.
If you want to watch the original Israeli newscast, it is here.
Norbert Brügge also has copies of the images. The darkish thing does sort of look rocket-ish, I suppose.
The layout of the Iranian launch pad in question, which remains under construction, is very similar to the Satish Dhawan Space Center in Sriharikota, India. Here is a comparison of satellite images of the two sites located at 13°43’59.33″N, 80°14’5.31″E (India) and 35°14’11.90″N, 53°57’1.73″E (Iran).
For a launch, the rocket is positioned over the flame bucket, next to an umbilical tower. Once the rocket is assembled, the gantry retracts along rails. This arrangement is the same at Semnan in Iran and Satish Dhawan in India. My colleagues at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Melissa Hanham and Dave Schmerler, created a little gif showing the normal operation of the Semnan launch pad in question with a rocket in the correct location. (It’s nice having such capable colleagues.)
CNS produced a whole video on the Imam Khomeini Space Center for NTI in case you are interested.
Obviously, the object in the Israeli TV picture can’t be a rocket. It’s on the wrong side of the gantry. The “rocket” would have to mysteriously travel through back wall of the gantry and then around the umbilical tower to reach the launch point. An Iranian ICBM isn’t half as impressive as a missile that can pass through walls and steel lattice-work. Here is a comparison using one of the Israeli satellite images of Semnan and a ground-truth picture from the Indian launch site that explains the problem.
Just to sure, we looked at construction photos to confirm that, yes, the back side of the gantry is closed. I found the image on the left; RAJ47 provided the other one.
So, clearly, it’s not a rocket. What is it? Tal Inbar figures it is probably an elevator. I am wishing for a bas-relief rocket in boost, but am not getting my hopes up. Someone will buy a new satellite photograph of the backside of the gantry sooner or later and we’ll get a better look. But it’s not a rocket.
There is still the issue of the NOTAM. That’s interesting, but more on that in a bit.