Richard H. Speier, K. Scott McMahon and George Nacouzi have a new RAND monograph out entitled Penaid Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of Countermeasures Against Ballistic Missile Defenses.
The report is very simple, which is not to say simplistic. Speier et al believe the MTCR should be expanded to cover Penetration Aids (PENAIDS), which seems eminently reasonable to me.
PENAIDs are an important technology associated only with the sort of ballistic missiles captured under the MTCR. If one hopes that missile defense investments will deter, rather than spur, missile proliferation, the PENAID control is a must. I have long thought that countermeasures are a serious challenge to the viability of missile defenses. If we are serious about providing even limited defenses, we need to substantially revise current missile defense programs and start thinking about PENAID control.
The bulk of Speier et al report — and the part worth arguing about — concerns what subsystems the MTCR ought to control. That’s a conversation worth having in the comments, I think.
In case you’d like a refresher on PENAIDS, or just like historical materials, here is a nice late-1980s USAF video.