John Carlson sent along a comment about Mark’s post,A Bridge Too Far? Syria & GOV/40. It was too important to bury in the comments, so I thought I would put it here:
Syria and safeguards non-compliance – a “new paradigm”?
John Carlson
In a recent article (Carnegie Commentary 17 June 2011) Mark Hibbs suggests the decision of the IAEA Board of Governors that Syria is in non-compliance with its safeguards agreement sets a “new paradigm” for non-compliance. This is because, according to Hibbs, the IAEA based its assessment on intelligence and other information without inspectors verifying the findings first hand in Syria.
This is not a correct representation of the situation. In fact IAEA inspectors did visit the Dair Alzour site, in June 2008. Despite Syrian efforts to destroy evidence of its activities at the site, inspectors found a significant number of particles of uranium, graphite and stainless steel – all consistent with information indicating there had been a natural uranium-fuelled, gas-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor at the site. The IAEA has since continued to seek access to locations where debris from the destroyed building had been moved, to locations that appeared to be functionally related to the Dair Alzour site, and to further information, but Syrian authorities have refused to cooperate.
Clearly a state’s lack of cooperation cannot be allowed to obstruct the IAEA’s efforts to implement safeguards agreements. Far from being a new paradigm, this non-compliance finding is consistent with previous findings where lack of cooperation with the IAEA has been a major factor, e.g. Iraq, North Korea and Iran. Readers interested in a detailed discussion of safeguards non-compliance are referred to my article NPT safeguards agreements – Defining non-compliance in Arms Control Today, May 2009.
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John Carlson was Director General of the Australian Safeguards and Non-proliferation Office 1989-2010, and Chair of the IAEA’s Standing Advisory Group on Safeguards Implementation (SAGSI) 2001-06. He is currently a consultant to NTI and a Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute.
Over the next week or so I plan to run a series of guest submissions on compliance issues, including posts by Bob Kelley and Dan Joyner. It should be an interesting debate.