Jeffrey LewisNORK Test Still Small (Not)

Sorry, I hit “live” accidentally before I finished proof-reading.

This one looks big(ger).


  1. Tim

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t it rather hard to get TWO 1 kt fizzles out of a device designed for 10-20kt? I was under the impression that yields for 10-20kt devices tended to be something like 90% full yield, 10% some random value in between (what is the actual expected distribution?)

    Either NK quality control REALLY sucks (getting an ‘easy’ test wrong twice??), or is this evidence that they are trying something aggressive, like trying to skip directly to a minaturized device…


  2. Daryl Press (History)

    Hi Jeffrey (and others),

    Good posting.

    What’s the conventional wisdom on why the NK detonations have both been so small? Problems with the timing of the implosion? Contaminated Pu?


  3. Jeffrey Lewis (History)

    Well, that was a cluster-you-know-what this morning.

    2-6 kt as far as I can tell.

  4. FOARP (History)

    Russians way over-estimating again, do those guys never learn?