Is the Triad a Cold War relic, like Ice Station Zebra?
I have long thought that a significant reduction in nuclear weapons — say 1000 or fewer deployed warheads — would require not merely downloading of warheads, but cuts to force structure and a possible end to the triad (see page 93).
One reason for cutting warheads rather than force structure is Bush faced a tougher adversary than the Soviets: Congress. When the U.S. Air Force tried to reduce the number of B-52H bombers to 56, Congress said nyet.
If President-elect Obama intends to make good on his promise to talk about further reductions with the Russians, he has to consider cutting force structure.
This could spell the end of the triad. USAF is the obvious target. It has been a poor steward of its nuclear arms, from the mishandling of weapons at Minot AFB, S.D., to shipping Minuteman III nose cones to Taiwan. The Air Force nuclear enterprise is a mess at precisely the time defense analysts are trying to figure out why the U.S. needs more than just a survivable submarine force.
Recently, however, smart people had convinced me that the triad is an immutable feature of US nuclear weapons policy.
From the “Tiger Team” force structure options prepared for the Strategic Posture Commission to other exercises, I had begun to suspect that some people would maintain a triad at all costs. If we had three weapons, one would sail around at sea, one would stand alert on an ICBM and one would be stashed in a bunker just off the tarmac of a bomber base. Cost per deployed warhead be damned.
So, imagine my surprise, when Bob Gates took dead aim at the triad and, in particular, the bomber leg, at at Maxwell Air Force Base:
You know, there are a lot of decisions that I made that I haven’t talked about publicly. For example, I decided not to make any change in the 76 deployed B-52s. That force will remain.
But the question is, depending on where post START ends up, if we go down significantly in the number of nuclear weapons that we have deployed, the question is whether the traditional triad makes sense anymore and I think we have to address that.
Whoa.
Hat tip: Marc V. Schanz for Bomber Musings.