Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan will be close. The last crop of opinion polls (which were prohibited during the ten days prior to the election) showed incumbent Chen Shui-bian had closed to a statistical tie with the KMT candidate, Lien Chan. The race is now a statistical tie, with the election likely to be decided by three “swing cities” in central Taiwan: Taichung, Changhua and Nantou. The New York Times has a nice summary of the ethnic identity politics that divide Taiwan.
On a related note, President Chen Shui-bian was slightly wounded during a rally. Reuters has the best coverage of the attack; some speculate the shooting my help Chen.