The U.S.’s Post-INF Ballistic Missile

Aaron Stein 0:02

You are listening to the Arms Control Walk podcast, a podcast on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation.

Jeffrey Lewis 0:08

Did I just make a huge noise?

Aaron 0:09

You are listening to the Arms Control Walk podcast, a podcast on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. I am Aaron Stein, Director of the Middle East Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in a cold Philadelphia.

Anne Pellegrino 0:26

I'm Anne Pellegrino, a research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Overcast, Monterey.

Jeffrey 0:34

And I am Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute, the founding publisher of the Arms Control Wonk blog, and a mere 30 minutes away from the sauna opening in the hotel in Kyoto.

Aaron 0:50

Yeah, for listeners, if you've listened to the episode, we Just posted before this, you will know that Jeffrey is in Kyoto. He is anxiously awaiting both the sauna opening, then follow that by breakfast. And because of that, we are recording this a little differently than usual. Jeffrey has a iPhone and just the iPhone earbuds. So we may be a little tinny.

In addition to that, Audacity no longer works with the updated Mac software. So we're working through this issue. Bear with us as we figure it out.

Jeffrey 1:22

Think of it as a retro throwback to the days when our podcast quality was truly shitty.

Aaron 1:29

Yeah. It's probably still better than the worst of the worst. People knew how I used to record these things before, Scott. It was – I mean amateur hour is being kind to amateur podcasters all over the world because it was truly –

Anne 1:45

I think is the best. All right, so part two of our recording extravaganza today is the launch out of Edinburgh Air Force Base today on December 12th. Launch a missile, get a pod.

Aaron 2:06

USA, USA, USA.

Anne 2:09

It's not that often that we discuss US launches. So this is fun. Yeah. So what exactly got shot off into the sky today?

Jeffrey 2:23

Jeffrey, you want to pick it up? It's a really interesting question. We have one not all that impressive video taken from really far away. But Jonathan McDowell thinks it's a caster for Solid Rocket, which would make a lot of sense because playing around with some of our – I don't have our – I don't have the best software to model missiles here with me in Japan because that's export controlled and it sits back in the United States.

But I do have a program on my laptop and that program is okay. And it, you know, suggests that something like the Castor 4 would go about a thousand kilometers, which is based on the notice to Mariners, what we think this thing would have gone.

Anne 3:19

So I will say first that when the video came out and people were able to grab a screenshot, kind of like the first frame that actually shows the missile on the pad. And when it was circulating around Twitter before Jonathan jumped in, everyone was kind of like, what the is this? Like, that's weird. Yeah.

Jeffrey 3:41

Jonathan is like a single point of failure for the space community. He is like the repository of all knowledge. I don't know if people ever signed up for Jonathan's space report, but about every two weeks he does a compendium of every launch in the world, which he is a he's an astronomer. Right. Like he has a full time job.

It's just his passion project. And he has literally for the past, I don't know, 25 years been documenting space activity in this incredible level of detail for not a dime.

Anne 4:16

That's incredible.

Aaron 4:17

I think maybe we should talk about what the caster for is first, because there's a cool, glossy online booklet. I mean, it's almost booklet length that describes a little bit.

Jeffrey 4:28

Well, yeah, it's the Northrop Grumman Propulsion Products Catalog, which we have a nice copy of in our online missile library, which is kind of one of the most fun things we've ever built. We have built this huge digital library of all things missile related for our research. Scott also found the same. Scott knew of the existence of this document.

We were looking at it. It's got You know, a fairly detailed description. But it's a space launch. It's a space launch motor. And it's been used by the US. It's also used by Japan.

Anne 5:08

Product catalogs are my new favorite resource. They've come in handy in a multitude of different projects lately. And I just think it's wild that all this data is out there. And as a plug, I mentioned this offhand to students in the geospatial tools workshop. And like half the groups went out and like used various product catalogs to like discern information on whatever they were researching.

And like my mind was blown. I was so impressed. So I love this. This is wonderful.

Jeffrey 5:42

Yeah, but I mean, it's really lovely to have like very detailed information on the rock motor. Again, presuming that this is what it is. The picture is not so great, but I think Jonathan's visual identification strikes us as pretty spot on. But it's a – that's a fine motor.

Aaron 6:03

Yeah. I mean maybe I'll read what DOD said just so that – they said the US Air Force in partnership with the Strategic Capabilities Office conducted a flight test of a prototype conventionally configured ground launch ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Test missile exited its static launch stand and terminated in the open ocean after more than 500 kilometers of flight.

Data collected and lesson learned from this test will inform the Department of Defense's development of future intermediate range capabilities. So they're calling it a prototype. Which is...

Anne 6:34

Which is good, right? Well, good in the sense that, or at least it's a careful wording, correct? Because anything that is not a prototype would mean that we were, well, I'm going to correct myself.

Jeffrey 6:54

Yeah, because we're violating the hell out of this treaty. Yeah.

Anne 6:58

Okay. Yeah, you got it.

Jeffrey 7:01

Hey, you know what I would say? What's really interesting about that to me is we have not talked too much about the Strategic Capabilities Office, which is a thing that is newish. It was established in 2012. I think it's – It was Bob Works Baby. And I'll just read you the description of it because it's so over the top.

It's the SCO imagines new, often unexpected and game-changing uses of existing government and commercial systems, extending their shelf life and restoring surprise to the military's playbook.

Anne 7:40

Oh, gosh.

Aaron 7:41

But it's like they've got like...

Jeffrey 7:44

A billion and a half dollars basically to do. They're kind of like DARPA with commercial stuff or existing government commercial stuff, you know. They're not kind of like, they're, they're, they're DARPA. They're off the shelf DARPA, I guess. Yes, okay, that's what I, that literally words out of my mouth. I mean, as best I can tell, I haven't actually seen a ton about them.

And this is kind of the you know, I mean, there's like all kinds of stuff they're working on. But like this is I think this maybe is their big coming out party.

Aaron 8:19

Yeah. And I think that matters because I mean, we're literally I think within like an hour, an hour, an hour and a half of the of the flight. And as the video was posted online, we're getting sort of first take. Twitter, and I think a lot of people are, are saying if it is the Caster this would suggest that the test was more political rather than indicative of what a future intermediate range system would look like. You know, I mean, I think there may be something to that, but like I wouldn't put it past them to sort of use a a commercially, I mean, I guess commercially available or at least like.

A longstanding motor that we know works as the basis to then begin improving upon a prototype. And it ultimately uses this initial engine.

Anne 9:11

I mean, what do you guys think? Yeah, I think that makes the most sense.

Jeffrey 9:15

And I think that's the whole purpose of SEO, right, is to develop these capabilities quickly. So, you know, like I'm sure there will be people internally who having done this, we'll say like, no, no, we should go with like a big expensive development program that will pay for the retirements of you know, thousands of people, but, but, but I suspect You know, I, I suspect there will be people also making the case that like, no, this is a, this is an off the shelf capability that could transition all the way to a deployable system.

So I, my guess is, I mean, I don't think the hot takes are wrong per se, because I do think that this, this, this whole thing is politically driven in terms of the timelines. But that doesn't necessarily mean that those politics driving it won't drive it all the way to a proper system.

Aaron 10:12

So I don't know. Yeah, because the last – I mean this is the – I guess we should back up a little bit in that the reason why these tests are taking place and why people are ascribing politics to the way these tests are being conducted and perhaps how they're being conducted is because it comes so quickly after the demise of the INF Treaty.

Right. So these are missiles that would have been barred by the INF Treaty because of their ground launch status. We had a sort of jury-rigged tomahawk fired off of a – it was a Channel Island if I remember correctly.

Anne 10:46

Yes, it was San Nicolas. San Nicolas.

Aaron 10:49

Of the St. Nicholas. Basically, it was an MK-41 launch tube just bolted onto a truck, if I'm remembering correctly. Yes.

Anne 10:59

It was the shabby chic. That's off the shelf.

Jeffrey 11:03

That's classier than what we call it.

Aaron 11:09

It's a DIY Home Depot launch. Redneck click them. Yeah, we are available for sponsors. But this was the ballistic missile, sort of, this was the ballistic version of that. But so I, I mean, I guess that, that's why people are ascribing politics to it. If I would say, well, I mean Jeffrey, you said you did some modeling on it, I mean, what is it that you figured out along with the Maybe cross-reference with the NOTAM information.

Jeffrey 11:41

Yeah, so the NOTAM suggests that the missile should have flown about 1,000 kilometers if it's going from the origin point to the spot in the ocean that's kind of at the center of the impact area. And You know, a thousand kilometers is not an intermediate range ballistic missile. So one question is, did they did they loft it in order to reduce the range?

You can thrust terminate with solid propellant missiles. But if you just took like if you just took a caster for and, you know, put a put a thousand kilograms on it and fired it out into the ocean, The modeling, the software, as I was saying, the software I have on me is not great. It's good, but it's the kind of thing I can lug around with me.

You have better in California, let's put it that way. Right, sitting on an air-gapped computer in a locked office, which can't go to Japan. But the software usually gets a slightly higher number. Than I think is realistic, but I was getting between, depending on the model, you know, 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers just firing the existing motor. So if it's been, you know, tweaked or if the payload's lighter or there may be other things that could allow it to go to intermediate range, but to me it looks like it traveled about 1,000 kilometers and could maybe do a bit more than that.

Assuming it's the Caster IV, which... At this point, it relies entirely on Jonathan's incredible eyeballs.

Anne 13:22

Right. Can we just back up and mention the

Aaron 13:27

Other options that people were throwing out before we saw any media that people were like worried that if it was X, Y, or Z, that we would be totally like poking the bear. Yes, exactly. I mean, I think one of the concerns is that it would be a Harrah. Yeah, a missile. I was trying to simplify that. It would be a, it would be a Harrah, which is, you know, a missile we use for for missile defense.

Anne 13:53

It's a target missile.

Jeffrey 13:57

Or an SM-3 would have been not great. Because the Russians are terrified that we might put nuclear weapons on SM-3s stationed in Poland and Romania and use them to decapitate them. And there was, in fact, when I was going to say, when this was funded... I think there was a congressional report, I think it was on the Senate side, that actually listed the systems that should be considered for an INF role.

And SM3 was one of them, which I'm sure sent the Russians into a tizzy.

Anne 14:40

Why?

Jeffrey 14:40

Yeah, it was... Because f*** you, that's why, I think is the answer.

Aaron 14:46

Yeah. Yeah, it's one of our older podcasts, if you go back. I can't remember which one. I think it was one of the ones where we were predicting the demise of the INF. And one of the things that we were concerned about is, I guess, inflammatory language or at least overly aggressive language. I believe it was in a Senate report based on the NDAA about the funding for this program, which is...

Potential missiles to use and i think they listed the sm3 the tomahawk and something else i just can't remember off the top of my head idiots well listeners will know we don't hold congress in the highest of regard here no but so they didn't do that yeah okay i mean at some point we're just going to have to accept that the inf i mean the u.s has departed russia violated the inf the united states and nato says i tend to take the u.s and nato at its word and so Russia has deployed, you know, deployed in violation of the INF, INF range cruise missiles.

And I mean, I guess after the U.S. withdrawal, I'm not sure it will even elicit. I mean, I assume that there'll be an obligatory statement from the Russians, but I don't think it will be unexpected from the Russian side. And so I'm not sure the outrage will be. I'm not sure that the outrage will match what potential words will be written down on a piece of paper, if that makes sense.

Anne 16:07

Okay. Yes, it does. So this is a bit of closure on that issue?

Aaron 16:16

Well, I would say the Domahawk test was like the book being closed. Maybe this is it being slammed shut. But I would say the book's being opened and going back to the opening of the discussion here. About what a conventional law, intermediate range as defined by the INF, by the INF treaty, conventional ballistic missile will look like.

Jeffrey, I don't know what you think.

Jeffrey 16:42

Yeah, I mean, well, you know, we've been thinking a lot about what the post-INF world is going to look like, because while I wasn't very sympathetic to the Decision to withdraw from the treaty. There are lots and lots of countries with short-range missiles that are now edging into medium-range missiles that I think will in not too long be edging into intermediate range missiles. Yeah, so you know.

Yeah, I'm not sure that this test is a cause of any of that, but I think it's, you know, this is a rocket that's produced to be used as a strap-on booster for U.S. and Japanese space launches. So it's not – again, assuming Jonathan is right about what it is, we're happy it's not a missile defense interceptor.

But it's also – it's a rocket stage that gets around. Yeah.

Aaron 17:51

But I think that's – I mean we've talked – I mean we've mentioned Pershing on this podcast before. I mean it wouldn't be the first time that things would be repurposed from civilian to military or military to civilian. And that sometimes does cause problems.

Jeffrey 18:07

I mean, again, I think for me the really interesting part, and I'm hoping that we'll see some enterprising reporters pick up on this, is how the Strategic Capabilities Office went about doing this. Because this is potentially a significant change in how the U.S. develops and procures at least some systems. And maybe it's just maybe it's just a goofy one-off but, but maybe it actually reflects a kind of, of broader change.

And so, you know, that part, that part's interesting to me.

Aaron 18:41

I mean, I guess there's just more to come. This is a hot take pod and, you know, There will be more to come, and I'm sure we're going to have a lot more of these pods because we have a full-on program here in the U.S. to develop these things. There will be more tests. Would everybody agree with that?

Yeah. Yes. And so we'll check back on this probably in the new year. With that, Jeffrey, I think you are 11 minutes to go before you hit the sauna. So any last words before we let you depart down to get immersed in warm water? No i won't say this was better than sleeping but it was it was it was definitely better than sitting here jet-lagged and miserable with nothing to do yeah we feel nice and good but all right so thank you everybody for listening if you enjoy the show head on over to patreon.com slash jcw podcast or consider giving us a donation because We enjoy doing this show, and you guys help put us on.

For $3 a month as a student, you get access to our Slack channel, $5 a month if you are a normal person. And with that, I'm signing off. So, Jeffrey, go enjoy the spa and enjoy the rest of your day in California.

Anne 19:56

Thanks. You too.