North Korea’s Mysterious Engine Test

Aaron Stein 0:06

Of the Arms Control Wong podcast, a podcast on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. I am Aaron Stein, director of the Middle East Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.

Anne Pellegrino 0:17

And I'm Anne Pellegrino, a research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.

Jeffrey Lewis 0:23

And I'm Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute, the founding publisher of the Arms Control Wong blog, and currently a very jet-lagged camper sitting in Kyoto. 3 a.m., Well, now it's 4.45 because we've been texting.

Anne 0:41

I'm sorry I woke you up and you're dedicated.

Jeffrey 0:46

You are dedicated. No, I'm just jet lagged and desperate to try to get to 6 o'clock when the bath in the hotel opens so I can go down and soak.

Aaron 0:57

Oh my gosh. Well, maybe we'll use this to mention at the outset is that Jeffrey, this is, well, we're doing something a little interesting here. We're going to record Two podcasts, one on DPRK, which we had planned to record, but we also have Missile News out of California, Test a Missile Launcher Pod, so that'll probably come later for listeners in the follow-on episode.

But, Jeffrey, you are on an iPhone, a hotel Wi-Fi, and the little iPhone earbud, so we may be a little tinny.

Jeffrey 1:26

This situation is deeply f***ed.

Anne 1:29

Also, thank you, Apple, for the whole Audacity Catalina of BS because that's also another issue. So we are back to the basics on recording. So think of this as an emergency pod. Just roll with the low quality.

Aaron 1:48

Right. Yeah, we're doing our best here. But Jeffrey, you have been doing your best because you and your team, although I am hearing that you were out in front on this, made some news last week with the North Koreans.

Jeffrey 2:04

Yeah, I'm just I'm really kind of psyched at like what a bizarre world we live in, because we were monitoring the engine test stand at Sohae. So not the launch structure used to put stuff into space, but the test stand where they just test engines. And that facility or that site had been dismantled after Singapore. Donald Trump actually had a hilarious thing where he talked about how he asked Kim Jong Un to take it apart.

And we could see it because of the heat and everything. He just kind of rambled. But they took it apart after Singapore and they started putting it back together again before Hanoi. And then last week for the first time, we caught preparations of them getting ready to do an engine test there, which is a pretty big deal.

And I was just like, cause we saw it not only before they did it But, you know, maybe we saw it pretty fast, maybe before it got into a briefing for the Mango Mussolini.

Anne 3:05

So one thing to note here is that it's not just cool that we saw the preparations. It's that North Korea knows all of the satellite passes, when the satellites are going to pass. And for whatever reason, this time around, when Planet was moving its satellites, that change in The change in timing, I guess, probably caught the North Koreans off guard.

They were not looking out for this pass that happened where we were able to see all of the preparation activity.

Jeffrey 3:43

Yeah, I'm trying to actually confirm when the sensor that took the picture moved, because I think that's right. The nice thing about Planet is that there's a pretty high cadence of And we got two pictures that day. And they were taken about three hours apart. And the first pass, the container hadn't moved. It was still kind of by the entryway.

And so we didn't know what it was for. But three hours later, they had moved the shipping container onto the concrete pad. And I really wonder if they didn't realize that there was another bird coming.

Anne 4:23

That's just wild to me. I think that's the coolest thing. Because North Korea tries so hard either to – I think they – I mean countries know that satellites watch them. And so when they do something, they're either trying to hide it or they are doing it very much out in the open as kind of like a signal.

And so this seems to me that this was not supposed to be something that we caught before they announced it.

Aaron 4:51

Do you guys want to try and describe the picture? I mean in sort of like what it was telling you because – I forgot which news outlet you ultimately went to with it. I think it was CNN that you ultimately went to with the image that suggested to you guys that there was a test that was imminent.

Jeffrey 5:10

Yeah, it was a pretty plain image. Really, the only thing that was different about it was the shipping container sitting on the concrete pad. Everything else initially looked the same. And so we actually had a little bit of work to do. Trying to explain to CNN that like, no, no, no, like there's not supposed to be a shipping container here.

And so we had to explain, you know, what the facility was, that it had been taken apart under Singapore, that the North Koreans had said that this was a, they called it physical verification, that they weren't developing ICBMs anymore, which I think was like a slight exaggeration from them, but spoke to the symbolic importance of the site.

And then just talking about all the patterns of activity that we hadn't seen. That we just generally hadn't seen vehicles or containers show up. And so really it's just a container on the 5th. And then that's what we got in the news on Thursday. But then we went ahead and Planet got images on the 6th and the 7th, and we can see more vehicles showing up.

Aaron 6:14

And this comes amidst the deteriorating atmosphere, let's say, where it's becoming plainly obvious that... Sort of maybe the grandiose statements that the U.S. officials had attributed to the DPRK in terms of its willingness to denuclearize is beginning to crumble. And there are significant concerns that we can go back to a period of either missile tests or even nuclear tests.

I think the North Koreans refer to it as a Christmas present or a Christmas surprise. I can't remember which – Turn of phrase they used. But, you know, so this was beyond being a open source win for you guys. Pretty worrying, wouldn't you say?

Anne 7:00

Well, so yes, yes. And I think it was Christmas gift. But one thing that I think a lot of us have been toying with is, is this the actual gift or a prelude to the big reveal?

Jeffrey 7:17

Yeah, I've been saying it's not the Christmas gift, but it is a lump of coal in Trump's stocking. It's the stocking stuffer.

Anne 7:25

Exactly. And you get your stocking stuffers and then you get your, you know, under the tree present. So this, I think you're right. Stocking stuffer waiting for, you know, the puppy to pop out of the box.

Jeffrey 7:37

Yeah, I would sort of add that, you know, the North Koreans didn't really tell us what they did. They eventually announced it on Saturday, saying that they had done it on the afternoon of the 7th. So I actually think it was pretty cool that Planet was able to take the image, get the image out of space, down to the ground, and then we were able to sort of put it on TV all before they actually did the test.

But they really just said it was an important test. They didn't say what it was. They didn't even really admit it was an engine test. And we probably would still be wondering, except for we have a beautiful pair of false color images showing the near infrared band. That Rob Simmon at Planet put together that really show clearly the big-ass burn scar.

Anne 8:23

This is my favorite part. I was waiting for you. I didn't want to take your thunder. I really wanted you to talk about this.

Jeffrey 8:31

Well, if you want to talk about how amazing the images are, I actually processed them really badly at first, and then Rob came along and did a pretty job.

Anne 8:41

Well, that doesn't surprise me, not because of your... Skills. It's more that anything Rob puts out is gorgeous. But yeah, so we, before we actually got the red pair, there were a couple of people on Twitter that were like, I wonder if like you could use near infrared to look at like burn scars and looking at the kind of area around the test stand.

It's pretty cool.

Jeffrey 9:11

Crispy already, and there's not a lot of vegetation around there. So are we actually seeing vegetation, or are we seeing just like the, the dispersed dirt? I am really uncertain. when I initially looked at it, I wondered if it was just dirt that had been around. but in the near infrared, I, I think what we're, what we're able to see is, even though it's brown.

We can see that it's sort of there, and then it looks like it's gone. So I am thinking, actually, that it's some shrubbery, which is really cool because it's so hard to tell the difference between shrubbery and dirt from space, right? Because they're both brown. But there's less brown, I think. I'm not certain.

Anne 10:04

I'm pulling them up now so I can go take another look.

Jeffrey 10:08

I made a nice little gif and I put it on Twitter. I know, that's where I'm going. But I actually do think... I do think that it's... I do think now that the shrubbery was damaged. I was not sure of that for a long time. Particularly when we tried to do it in the three and five meter imagery, which you can still see it there, but it's more ambiguous.

Anne 10:30

Yeah, you know what? Now that I'm looking at it, it does... You're probably right about it being shrubbery.

Jeffrey 10:36

Well, it's because... Rob Capon did it the right way.

Anne 10:39

I know, I know. But when I'm looking at it again, my recollection was that the, the area, the, the burn area was smaller, but it's actually, it kind of, it kind of creeps up into the little hills around, around the exit.

Jeffrey 10:56

Yeah. So I just think it's a big win for open source that they could take that picture in the day in North Korea and, You know, we can wake up like I'm in my, like pajamas with my tea. We download it first thing in the morning, and then it's on CNN within like a couple of hours before the North Koreans can even conduct the test. And you know, then they don't even tell us. I mean, they admit they did a test, but they won't tell us what it is. But we can look at the burn scar and tell exactly what it is. So I just, I think it's a crazy world we live in.

Anne 11:30

Can we tell potentially which engine they might be testing based on how big the impact zone is from the exhaust? Do you have any guesses? I mean, there are so many engines that they have.

Jeffrey 11:46

Yeah, I don't know. We've been talking and you have been spared this, but we've been talking about going back and trying to build a proper database of all the before after picture to try to figure out.

Anne 12:00

I'm, I'm slightly offended. Why are you sparing? What does spare mean? Because no one wants to do it.

Jeffrey 12:08

No one wants to do it.

Anne 12:10

What do you mean? It's a lot of work. Write a grant proposal. Okay, fine.

Jeffrey 12:16

I think that's a great proposal. And we'll take one of those, one of those bright young things that that Grace had hired working on geo for non-pro and just have her or him go through all of these images. And

Aaron 12:30

See if we can find a correlation. You're laughing, but that's not a bad idea. I was gonna say maybe we can close the episode with, with the appeal if somebody wants to step forward and fund this work. CNS is open, yes, please. I think this is actually a really cool idea. And it is. If I have, if my, if my decks get cleared, then why the hell not? Yeah, Jeffrey, do we hit everything you wanted to hit?

Jeffrey 12:56

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I think that, you know, the last question is what, what we think they tested, right? So, you know, and I think we just, we should say, we just don't know, you know, it could be anything from an improved wasong 15 to, I think we have to seriously consider the possibility that it was a solid propellant motor.

Cause actually it was Nathan Hunt who observed, and I give him a lot of credit for this Remember, they took the test stand down after Singapore, but they put it up before Hanoi. It would be very on brand for the DPRK to use a dismantlement as part of a negotiation so that when they went ahead and reassembled it, they could make structural changes that we wouldn't necessarily notice.

Oh, Jesus. Oh, my gosh. That's what they did with the cooling power in Yongbyon. Remember, they knocked it down. And then when they went ahead and restarted it, it, they had built a pump house and we had kind of didn't notice. You can, it is not typical to see solid propellant missiles fired vertically, at least not down.

It's more typical to see them fired up and more typical still to see them fired horizontally, but you, you can do it. So I, I don't know. I don't, I don't know what they tested. It may be the, whatever they tested may be the, Engine that will appear in the gift.

Anne 14:26

I was really looking forward to a relaxing Christmas.

Jeffrey 14:30

Ho, ho, ho. Are you going to sous vide another turkey?

Anne 14:34

No, I'm not sous viding a third turkey. Oh yeah. For people who don't know between the last episode and now the sous vide was such a hit that we had to go buy a second 20 pound turkey and Chop it in half sous vide each half for 24 hours and then cook it. And so we still have so much turkey.

Jeffrey 14:57

I bet you my, my buddy, Kevin, the butcher bring in Monterey, the meat gets you a good price on a turkey.

Anne 15:04

Hey, you know, it was a really expensive turkey. It was an incredible turkey, but I'm really glad the sous vide worked out because if I had spent that much and totally blew the turkey, then I would have been a bit upset.

Jeffrey 15:18

Yeah, I should say shout out to the Meadery, which is owned by my friends Kevin and Gino, which is like the it's the it's the high end butcher shop in Monterey. And they they brined the turkey that Anne had for Thanksgiving and the turkey I had.

Aaron 15:36

If you're if you're in town, go get a sandwich. They're lovely. That's a free plug, by the way. They are not a sponsor of the show. They just make Jeffrey and Anne's life better.

Anne 15:45

They could give us some hot Italian sausage and I'd be happy. I consider that sponsorship.

Aaron 15:54

Just to brighten up your day so we're less surly on the podcast. But I think with that, we should wrap up because we have another one to record. Anything else you guys want to add before we do the sign off here?

Anne 16:04

Merry Christmas.

Aaron 16:06

We have one more to go. I know.

Anne 16:10

Merry Christmas from Sohey. Oh, gosh.

Aaron 16:15

Okay. Well, with that, Anne and Jeffrey, always a pleasure. Jeffrey, good job by you on the satellite photo. And as always, maybe put together that proposal to build that database because I would look at it. Sure. And that's also a gentle nudge to our listeners if you want to help out. Speaking of which, if you want to help out the show, you can head on over to patreon.com slash acwpodcast, where for $3 a month if you're a student, you can gain access to our Slack channel, $5 a month If you're a normal person.

With that, Jeffrey and Ann, let's wrap this one up.

Anne 16:50

On to the next.

Aaron 16:51

On to the next.