Keeping up with the Kims

Other voice 0:02

Hi, what's your name? My name's Bob Fever. Bob, what do you do? I'm in artillery. Thank you, Bob. Can we play anything for you? Anything. Just play it loud.

Jeffrey Lewis 0:19

You are listening to the Arms Control Wonk podcast, the leading podcast on arms control disarmament and nonproliferation. I'm Jeffrey Lewis, the founding publisher of the Arms Control Wonk blog and a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in the foggy bit of California.

Aaron Stein 0:33

And I'm Aaron Stein. I'm an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London and a doctoral fellow at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

Jeffrey 0:41

Iran and its proliferation activities have been dominating the news, but the North Koreans have been busy too. Whether it's missile testing, nuclear activities at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, or new space launch facilities, there is a lot to look at. We use a lot of open source tools at the Middlebury Institute, from satellite photographs to computer models, for keeping up with the Kims.

Aaron 1:00

Well, you know, it's been popping up for me. I mean, I have been focusing more and more on Iran. But a lot of stories have been popping up about North Korea, both in my Twitter feed and in stories and papers like the Washington Post and the New York Times. So I wanted to talk to you about what exactly is going on with all these new open source goodies that we're getting our hands on.

Jeffrey 1:18

Oh, man, there is so much stuff.

Aaron 1:19

Yeah, I know. I mean, but the ones that popped out today and why I sent you the email, let's talk about North Korea today. It's all this new stuff going on about the satellites, rockets, missiles, you name it.

Jeffrey 1:29

Yeah, new buildings for handling control of launches. But the big one in the news is the new satellite control center in Pyongyang. What did you think of that building, Aaron?

Aaron 1:40

It was a little spacey. It reminded me of Soviets.

Jeffrey 1:43

It's like something out of a North Korean version of Blade Runner, right?

Aaron 1:47

Yeah, yeah, definitely.

Jeffrey 1:49

So the North Koreans have built a new center. It's called the General Satellite Control Center. And so it's the spot in Pyongyang where scientists, technicians, engineers would control satellites. Because, of course, Aaron, the North Korean program is a space launch program for the peaceful use of outer space.

Aaron 2:08

Yeah, one of these times they're going to get it right and actually get something up there that will work, right?

Jeffrey 2:13

Yeah, I think the last one, you know, was sort of functional, yeah.

Aaron 2:17

Sort of, I think it beeped, right?

Jeffrey 2:18

Yeah, I mean, you know, we're not exactly, we're not, yeah, it's the early stages for them. But it's interesting because, you know, they just, they have an older satellite control center further away, but also in Pyongyang. And it just got remodeled in 2012. You know, the internal remodel was so different that reporters who had visited it in 2009 when new pictures came out showing Kim Jong-un there, No one recognized the room, and so there was this kind of frantic period of measuring the room in the pictures, which is classic kind of open source work, to try to confirm that it was the same building and it had just gotten a facelift.

So it got a total facelift in 2012. And my favorite part of this is there's a scientist's street, which is basically like a set of houses and parks where the scientists live.

Aaron 3:18

Yeah, I read about this. I mean, I don't think it's a bunch of coffee shops lined up next to each other, right?

Jeffrey 3:22

Right. No, they published pictures and you could spot the timeline for the construction matches to the satellite pictures and the buildings look the same. But those buildings were very close to the old satellite control center. And so now having built this like really fancy, at least for North Korea, scientists residential area. They just gave these guys this annoying commute across Pyongyang.

Aaron 3:47

Is traffic going to be a problem for these guys?

Jeffrey 3:49

I don't know. But I just think it's bizarre because I didn't find the site actually. Joseph Dempsey at IISS did. And it was annoying because I started with the scientist street and worked outward. And the further out I got without finding the new thing, I was like, did they really just do this to these guys? Yeah.

Aaron 4:08

For a non-North Korea expert like me, it's actually kind of hard to keep straight because they did remodel something. Then they built something new, right?

Jeffrey 4:15

Right. And there are also the two – so in addition to the satellite control center in Pyongyang, the thing that controls the little object orbiting the earth, each of the space or missile test sites has a launch control center. To watch the rocket go up. And so sometimes it's a little confusing because if Kim Jong-un goes for a rocket launch, instead of going all the way to Sohae, which is the big space launch center, he might just go to the satellite control center and watch the launch from there.

Aaron 4:48

Just depends how he's feeling that day.

Jeffrey 4:49

Well, you know, I mean, he's a busy guy. He's got, you know, people to execute with anti-aircraft machine guns and so forth.

Aaron 4:57

Later, you're foreshadowing. That's a tease. That's a tease. Stick around, everybody. No, but Sohae is on the west coast and it's the smaller one, Tohei, that's on the east coast, correct?

Jeffrey 5:07

Wait, Tonghei is on the east coast, it's the smaller one and older. Sohae is on the west coast and it's big.

Aaron 5:14

See, I had it backwards in my head.

Jeffrey 5:16

Yeah, well, it's impossible to remember. So... Sohae, though, is in the news because in the past year or so, it's also gotten an enormous makeover. So the launch pad has a new tower that is clearly for a larger missile. I'm sorry, rocket. Rocket.

Aaron 5:36

Peaceful uses.

Jeffrey 5:38

And there is this enormous space-agey looking building, which actually, in some kind of aesthetic sense... Resembles the new Satellite Control Center.

Aaron 5:50

Oh, really?

Jeffrey 5:50

Yeah, they look kind of the same. I mean, they've got the, I mean, they look like, like both of these things look like the USS Enterprise, you know, from Star Trek, like crash landed. And so it's like got this weird kind of, you know, circular shape to it. A lot of us think that that might be a new launch control center at Sohae.

So just like the satellite control center in Pyongyang, which was like an old square boxy building, got replaced by this kind of fancy space age looking thing. I think some of us are beginning to wonder if that's happened at Sohae as well, that their launch control center has gotten replaced by a bigger space agey thing.

Aaron 6:36

Yeah, no, maybe they shared the same architect, but that just raises the question about why they're expanding both sites. Or at least they built a new site and then they're making the other site larger. It comes after a year of big missile tests that you were talking about. So I'm always curious if those are related.

Jeffrey 6:50

I don't think they're related. Or at least they're only related in a vague kind of indirect way in the sense that I think the – You know, if you're the North Koreans and you're making the case that the Kim family is good at running the country, there's not a lot of evidence to support that hypothesis. And so I think all they've got is the space program.

And so the reason that the scientists get the fancy residential district, the reason that they build the new satellite control center, the reason that they're upgrading. So, Hey, and the reason that they're going to probably continue doing space launches with a bigger rocket. And they created this thing called the called it's called nada, which is yeah. Right.

It's like NASA, but with a D The reason they're doing all of that and putting so much emphasis on space is I think it's part of a story about how the Kims are leading North Korea to prosperity. So I think that's why they're doing it.

Aaron 7:56

No, no. I mean that makes perfect sense, sort of like a stand-in for like I guess regime – Propaganda, if you will, that the country is advancing because the rocket and space program and the scientific program is advancing as well. So North Korea is making strides.

Jeffrey 8:13

Yeah, and I mean, so I guess what we're all expecting next is having seen the scientist street, having seen the new satellite control center, this new building at Sohae, which I think is a new launch control center, my guess is that Kim Jong-un will show up there relatively soon and we'll get some pictures. Because right now we've only seen satellite photographs of that thing.

We haven't seen a ground truth picture yet. Of what it looks like. And you know why this is really interesting. Why? So Nathan Hunt, who does a lot of work for 38 North. I don't know if I should be saying this. He is building the greatest, most detailed computer model of Sohae ever.

Aaron 9:00

Well, you've said it now. It's out there.

Jeffrey 9:02

Yeah. Right down to like a birdhouse. Really? Yeah. It's going to be really cool.

Aaron 9:08

Can you tell the listeners which tools he's using just so they know how the open source stuff works?

Jeffrey 9:12

I don't know. I just occasionally see screenshots.

Aaron 9:14

Oh, wow. That's really interesting. I love those models because a lot of people use Google SketchUp to do that. It sort of fits in with the open source.

Jeffrey 9:22

Well, I just was going to say, I think a lot of people look at those models and think like, oh, they're pretty. But as we discovered when we looked at the allegations that the Iranians were building an ICBM on a launch pad, modeling the facility helps you understand how launch operations work and And the Israeli TV station got it totally wrong.

It was probably an elevator because it was on the wrong side of the tower. So you really – it sounds silly to say like, oh, it's down to the birdhouses. But if you want to understand how a facility works, that's the discipline and the level of detail that I think you have to run it down to so that you don't do things like confuse elevators for rockets.

Aaron 10:08

I think that's exactly right. I don't think anybody should accuse – Should be, I guess, wary of more detail when you're trying to use open source models to try and get a granular look at these facilities, particularly because these facilities are so controversial because satellites and the rockets used to power those satellites into space can also be used for other things that have popped up in the news recently.

Jeffrey 10:30

Yeah, you want to talk about the missile testing?

Aaron 10:32

Yeah, let's talk about the missile testing.

Jeffrey 10:34

Oh, there has been so much missile testing in 2014 and in the early part of 2015. There was this great moment where somebody was asking a U.S. official what our policy toward North Korea was. And the U.S. official, who really I don't think had a great answer, said, well, we're trying to turn up the volume on our existing message.

Which is? Well, that's why I think it was a bad answer. Right.

Other voice 11:09

I think you've lambasted U.S. policy over North Korea. So we just sort of ignore it.

Jeffrey 11:22

I mean, you know, I don't know.

Aaron 11:24

I shouldn't be too tough on them.

Jeffrey 11:25

But clearly the policy is not working. Right. And so so but not having a new policy, it's like, well, you know, what's your plan to get this policy working? It's like, oh, we're going to turn up the volume. And, you know, like my comment was like, I hope they can like turn it up enough that Kim Jong Un can hear it over all of the rocket fire.

Other voice 11:43

What we do is if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do? Put it up to 11. 11, exactly. One louder. Why don't you just make 10 louder and make 10 be the top number and make that a little louder?

Aaron 11:59

These go to 11. I think you've been keeping a tally, have you not, of suspected missile launches and what they're all intended to do or at least sort of like which systems they are?

Jeffrey 12:09

Yes, I tried. I tried. And in fact, I just sent it off to a friend of mine who is a reporter. At Air Force Magazine, where we were literally trying to go through everything and just count them all up. And it's very interesting because one of the things that came out of that exercise, which I started doing last summer, was there were a whole bunch of missile tests.

This is another open source thing. A whole bunch of missile tests that were getting identified as long-range artillery. Mm-hmm. But to me, based on where they were located and the range of the event, and then eventually we figured it out from the pictures the North Koreans rolled out, I thought they were a short-range, solid-fueled missile that the North Koreans had taken and had extended the range.

So it was only shortish anymore. It was kind of getting up there toward medium. That was pretty cool.

Aaron 13:12

Yeah, I mean, I think you went a little further. I think you think that there's a new missile floating around out there, don't you?

Jeffrey 13:18

Well, I think we know that now because the North Koreans have released a picture of the darn thing.

Aaron 13:21

Right, so you were getting hints of it through these tests, through the open source.

Other voice 13:25

Yeah, so the first thing is, you know, the...

Jeffrey 13:28

The first thing was the range. The range was really long. It was like 200 kilometers, which is super long for an artillery system. But the North Koreans were also describing it as precision. And usually artillery rockets are unguided or have limited guidance. I had a huge conversation on Twitter about how to make this distinction. And it's a problem because it's one of these distinctions that everyone kind of understands, but there's an exception to everything.

So you can't really... Articulate it, but it more or less works out to, you know, the goal of artillery is to barrage, and so it tends to be unguided, cheaper, and shorter range, whereas missiles tend to be Things you use to target specific things. And so they tend to be more expensive, better guided. There's an exception to all of these rules.

But we really started thinking this thing was an SS-21, which is a Soviet solid-fueled short-range ballistic missile that we knew the North Koreans had copied, but that they were extending the range. And the first thing we saw was the plume of I don't know. People get bored about this. No, no, no.

Aaron 14:39

The plume is important because it tells you what type of missile it can be just by the color.

Jeffrey 14:44

Yeah, it tells you whether it's solid-fueled or liquid-fueled. And it just – it was solid-fueled, and it really looked like an SS-21 plume. And then eventually – and we could confirm the range because we could see where it had been launched and where it had landed.

Aaron 14:59

How did you do that? Actually, I'm curious. How did you do that?

Jeffrey 15:01

This was so much fun. So they gave the range. And so the first thing we did was we – they said it was – so the U.S. and the Japanese said it had been launched near Wonsan. And we had a picture of Kim Jong-un at the site. And there's a – I remember those pictures. Right. There are islands over his left shoulder.

Aaron 15:21

Yeah.

Jeffrey 15:23

And just that strange configuration. Like they're launching over water. He's on a strip of land. There's water behind him, right? So he's on like a narrow strip of land near Wonsan with two islands behind him. There just weren't that many places that matched. And sure enough, there's only one spot with the right vegetation. And we were able to then match the buildings on the islands.

Right. And determine almost exactly where the missile had been launched from. Then we just went up the coast, I think it was 220 kilometers, and found the rocks that it had flown into.

Aaron 15:55

Right, so from the pictures that they had released of the front and back end of the whole thing.

Jeffrey 16:00

Do you know how we know we were right, by the way? How? After I published that piece, every time he goes to a missile test now, They put up a green screen behind him.

Aaron 16:11

I know.

Jeffrey 16:11

They started Photoshopping him.

Aaron 16:12

It's not nice.

Jeffrey 16:13

No, I – well, yes, they are Photoshopping, but I think the green screens are real.

Aaron 16:18

Oh, I see what you're saying.

Jeffrey 16:19

They're literally putting up a barrier so you can't look over his shoulder.

Aaron 16:24

I didn't know that. I actually haven't seen those updated photos.

Jeffrey 16:27

Yeah, well, all the new photographs, he's got a barrier. I just – a friend of mine was teasing me. He was like, dude, what would he do if he turned around and was like, why is there always a green screen behind me? I don't know. Well, sure. That's why we added Monterey to the target list.

Aaron 16:44

Well, but that's the problem because it's a double-edged sword that they put out there. They want to put out propaganda, but when they put out propaganda, you can sort of backtrack where they are and you can figure out what exactly that they're doing and sort of parse out their rather strange language they use in their press releases.

Jeffrey 16:58

Yeah, I actually, you know, somebody asked me sometime about like how we measure policy impact. And although we have all of the like traditional measures in terms of, you know, educating, one of these things I'm really proud of is the fact that, you know, yeah, there is this like, and I, you know, like we're not the only ones doing it, but just the idea that we're part of a community that, That apparently the North Koreans are like aware of and annoyed with is, you know, that's that's a good that's a that's a good sign.

So but the point is, I almost immediately published something saying like everybody, the South Korean Ministry of Defense is saying it's a long range artillery piece. And some of these tests might be long range artillery.

Aaron 17:42

But you know, I think that there might be a new missile here and then sure enough there, that sucker was, I mean, do you think that's why they were doing so many new tests is because they were flight testing new missile designs or early, you know, to, to

Jeffrey 17:55

No, they announced in the spring that they were going to do – I think it was in the spring. Maybe it was last fall. But they announced that because we did regular military exercises, they were going to respond in kind and they were going to increase the pace of testing. And sure enough, 2014, there was a ton of stuff.

So they did some scuds, some no-dongs, and I do think they are rolling out – A new artillery system, and then now there's this extended range SS-21. So they've got kind of new stuff to test, but I think there was also a political point behind it, which was that's their response to our military exercises.

Aaron 18:37

They were turning up the volume?

Jeffrey 18:39

Yeah, that's their turning up the volume. They were turning up the volume. You know, there's actually a picture of Kim Jong-un watching the launch, and he's got earplugs on the table. So like anytime I hear US officials talk about like turning up the volume, I'm like, he can't hear you.

Aaron 18:56

I think we all pay attention so much to all these – so the space law and to the rockets, all that stuff is like what they could put on top of the rocket, right? Right. Let's call it the business end in the nonproliferation world. About what they can put on top of that and the problems it can cause.

Ah, yes. The great miniaturization debate. The miniaturization. I mean, so we got to talk about the miniaturization. Is the Yongbyon back up and running? Was there steam? What's going on?

Jeffrey 19:25

Yeah, maybe we should talk about Yongbyon because I think that's one of the things we're having the most fun with. And we had an exchange with ISIS on Twitter. Not that ISIS.

Aaron 19:37

The first, well, David Albright's Isis.

Jeffrey 19:40

Yeah, that's right. I don't know. I don't want to make any jokes there. I'll probably get in trouble. Where, you know, I actually think they've been super careful in everything that they've written. But sometimes what they have written has been interpreted in a way that I don't think is as careful. I just want to make that distinction.

Because early on, they wrote that they didn't think that the – In one satellite photograph, they saw things that led them to think that the reactor was shut down. They were very careful to say it could be a very temporary shutdown. It doesn't mean that it's dead. It just means that in this picture, it's shut down. And I think some people interpreted that to mean that the reactor was off.

Mm-hmm. And wasn't producing any plutonium. And there were other reasons to think that, which is in other satellite photographs, some of the signatures that we had associated like steam or hot water coming out of a particular pipe involved with the cooling. It brings in the water, uses the water to cool the reactor, and then the hot water gets dumped into the river.

We weren't seeing that water come out.

Aaron 20:48

Yeah, no steam.

Jeffrey 20:49

Now, the South Korean government almost immediately said – I think it was a foreign minister. I can't remember now – said, I think the reactor is operating. And so people said, oh, aren't you wrong? And – The folks at ISIS, it's not just David, you know, they wrote something very good saying, well, we didn't say it was off-off.

You know, we said that in this picture, it looks like it's shut down. The reactor could be operating intermittently. When they do turn it on, it could be operating at low power. But they were very cautious. And so we got interested because we find that we were having arguments with other people about this. And it just struck me that like, We were basing all of this analysis on a single signature, which is the hot water coming out of the pipe.

But what if we got the pipe wrong?

Aaron 21:37

Yeah, exactly.

Jeffrey 21:39

What if they changed the piping? What if they are aware, just like with the green screens, what if they're aware that we're watching the piping and they have mixed it up on us? And then a funny thing happened. There was snowfall and some of the snow melted.

Aaron 21:52

Right. So this is the new satellite photos that have come out for a new report based upon snowmelt.

Jeffrey 21:59

Right. So then we – and we haven't published this yet because we're not certain about it. Both Nico Milanopoulos at Skybox and we started looking at thermal pictures. Ooh. Yeah. And we found one. And I got to say, I'm really impressed with myself. Well, I couldn't believe I did this. And those images are really hard to interpret, but I picked out a pixel and I'm like, that's the reactor.

It's hot. And everybody else is like, yeah. These are pretty big pixels you know they're like they're they're big like the reactor is one pixel and so to pick out the one pixel and be like i think that pixel looks a little lighter than the surrounding area and that's the reactor you know they're like ah let's actually do it with the computer and so turns out in one of the pictures the reactor seems to be warm now now i have to pause we haven't published this yet because and my colleague melissa hanum is is working on it It could just be atmospheric reflectance.

And it's such a big pixel. It could be something else. And, you know, we haven't exactly gotten a high level of confidence on how hot the reactor is. So, you know, maybe they just left the lights on.

Aaron 23:24

But this ISIS report would be a second data point, no?

Jeffrey 23:28

And that's exactly what's happened now, is now they've looked at it, and they've looked at the snow melt, and they have concluded that it might be operating intermittently or at low power, which would be consistent with our tentative interpretation of the thermal image. And they wrote a piece, which I loved, saying that they think they're using a different discharge pipe.

Aaron 23:51

Yes.

Jeffrey 23:52

So it's just like the green screen, like the North Koreans read this stuff, and then they try to disguise the signatures.

Aaron 24:00

Yeah, but they think they've... The snow was slightly melted, or at least there was maybe the spotting of steam coming off of the new route for the discharge pipe that led to what looks to be a new pumping facility built right along the river. Right.

Jeffrey 24:13

So, yeah. So, I mean, I have been having these arguments all fall saying like, look, I think this is bad method. You know, it's not that – again, not with ISIS because I thought they were being really careful. But people who are saying like, look, it's off. It's like, well – One signature says it's off, but I like to have more than one.

Aaron 24:36

I've seen Sig Hecker's photos inside that thing. It looks like a Mad Max landscape. Am I just uncomfortable? It freaks me out when it's back on. No, it's freaky looking.

Jeffrey 24:46

Oh, yeah. You know, I don't know. Maybe.

Aaron 24:51

And I'm going to follow it on open source.

Jeffrey 24:53

With its jerry-rigged secondary cooling system?

Other voice 24:56

Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. It probably wouldn't be great.

Jeffrey 25:02

SIG, by the way, super helpful in this. He's one of the people we've been talking to about the building. Because apparently the building's cold even when the reactor's running.

Aaron 25:12

Well, that brings us to another part of the ISIS report that I think we should talk up to. There was another warm building in the satellite photo.

Jeffrey 25:19

Oh, yes, yes, yes.

Aaron 25:21

More strange stone belt patterns.

Jeffrey 25:23

Yeah. And I think this one is really interesting to me because – I mean first of all, you can't know that the – how did ISIS phrase it? They said just that the lights are on, right? The building is warm.

Aaron 25:40

They said that the building is warm. The heat is on, which suggests something. But we should tell everybody what the building is, what's inside the building.

Jeffrey 25:45

Oh, sorry. Right. Centrifuges. There are centrifuges inside the building. And so now that there are – now that there's more floor space, we assume there are more centrifuges. And the fact that they're heating it suggests they're using it, but we should be super clear that that heat is not coming from the centrifuges.

Aaron 26:01

Give the listeners two minutes on which building you're talking about, when they expanded it, and what that means.

Jeffrey 26:05

Yeah, so we had these suspicions that they had an enrichment program for a long time, and there was a big debate in the early 2000s about whether it was just a research program or whether there was a brick-and-mortar facility somewhere. And that's never been resolved, although I think The evidence now leans toward there being a brick and mortar facility someplace.

Because when they threw the IAEA out in, what, 2009, they rush constructed inside a building that had been used for, I guess, fuel fabrication. They gutted it and put a new roof on it and then stocked it with centrifuges. And they did that so quickly that most of us assume that there must be a A research and development facility someplace else, and maybe even another centrifuge facility.

Aaron 26:52

And they showed this off to Sig Hecker.

Jeffrey 26:54

And they showed this off to Sig Hecker, Bob Carlin, and John Lewis. Okay. Sig gets all the credit because he wrote it up and talked about it. But yeah, it was a delegation from Stanford, one of my affiliated institutions. Yeah, shout out. Yeah, they gave me a library card. That's awesome. It's true. I'm genuinely grateful. No, like I am genuinely grateful and do things for them because having access to their libraries as a research affiliate is really a wonderful thing.

Aaron 27:26

That's true.

Jeffrey 27:27

It's not sarcasm.

Aaron 27:29

Anyways, yeah.

Jeffrey 27:33

They're churning out plutonium. They're churning out uranium probably.

Aaron 27:37

Right. So that actually – when I was reading it, what does that suggest or am I getting way too ahead of myself? You know where I'm going.

Jeffrey 27:43

Well, I mean one thing is it raises all kinds of questions about how much fissile material they have to put weapons on missiles. But is this where you're going? Then the question is how big are those warheads?

Aaron 27:53

Yep.

Jeffrey 27:54

Yeah. So I don't like the term miniaturization. Make lighter?

Aaron 27:59

Compact. Compact. OK.

Jeffrey 28:02

I had a conversation with some colleagues.

Aaron 28:05

Put the fat men on Weight Watchers?

Jeffrey 28:07

Well, yeah. I mean, so the thing is what when you talk to people like I was talking to Cheryl Rofer runs Nuclear Diner. Cheryl's great. You know, she was I'm putting words in her mouth. She didn't say it this way, but she led me to think like when you say miniaturization, that kind of talks about like what we do in terms of size, which is really schmancy.

And so I really – I kind of directly asked her like, well, how would you describe that first generation of steps to make the warhead lighter but also physically smaller, which comes along with lighter but physical smallness is important. And we talked about it a little and she was very careful because she didn't want to discuss nuclear weapons design.

But eventually I settled on compact design. And she was like, that's the word. And so she didn't talk about these things, but it's things like using less high explosives and making better use of air gaps. So like a levitated pit and other things that allow you to get the same bang with a lighter, more compact device. And yeah, I'm like the crazy guy who thinks the North Koreans are pretty far along in that regard.

I'm like out there with DIA.

Aaron 29:30

Yeah, well, I mean, there's another reason I want to talk about this, because it has been coming up in the news recently about that they have mounted a miniaturized, or at least have the capability to mount a miniaturized warhead on top of, I think they're calling it the KN-08 in the report I'm reading, a road mobile missile.

Jeffrey 29:48

Yeah, it's very difficult. What I think has happened is this, and we've seen this before. There's a difficult underlying intelligence assessment, which gets rephrased by people in different ways and then translated by the media. And so it leads to this kind of silly dance where an official says that they have, they would sometimes say miniaturized, but let's say they have a compact device that can fit on a ballistic missile.

The media runs with this. Ah, the world's going to end. And then there's a clarifying statement that they kind of do, but they don't. And that's supposed to reassure everybody, but actually just confuses everyone. And what I think is actually happening is making the weapons more compact is not that difficult. You could do that without testing. The problem is it wouldn't necessarily be a reliable warhead, right?

So if the North Koreans decide like, well, screw it, we don't care, you know, Having 20 unreliable warheads is still a heck of a deterrent. Do they have a deterrent or not? There's a value judgment embedded in that question. It's not a purely technical judgment. And it gets worse when you talk about putting that warhead on a missile that goes to, say, intercontinental range because there's the issue of whether the RV will survive.

Although a lot of the problems with RVs at long range really are just accuracy, which again, do the North Koreans care if they aim at San Francisco and hit San Jose? I'm not sure they do. But the warhead itself might not be rugged enough to survive the journey. And so I guess two years ago, DIA mistakenly marked as unclassified a sentence saying that in their judgment, North Korea...

Could make a nuclear weapon small enough to fit on a ballistic missile, but that it would not be rugged enough to survive delivery. Or it was unclear whether it would be rugged enough to survive delivery. They didn't say it that clearly. Now, once you do that, like that totally hoses over every military officer who has to talk about this issue.

Because on the one hand, the report says they can. But on the other hand, it kind of says that they can't. And I think everybody else in the intelligence community, as far as I can tell, emphasizes the fact that it wouldn't be very reliable. And so they treat that as a no, but DIA treats it as a yes.

And so like, well, you know, somebody asked the head of, yeah, right. Somebody asked the head of USFK maybe a year ago. And then more recently, I guess it was, was it Gortney?

Aaron 32:19

Yeah, Admiral William Gortney.

Jeffrey 32:21

Yeah. Somebody asked him about it and they kind of all say the same thing, which is, you know, like, well, I kind of have to assume they can. And you can totally see why they say that. Right. Because given the underlying intelligence judgment from their perspective, you know, they're being told the answer is yes, but it's unreliable.

So they're going to just treat it as yes. But the problem is then they talk to the press and you get this total panic.

Aaron 32:47

Yeah, I mean it's a definitional thing, and it goes back to one of your – my opinion, one of your best pieces you ever wrote, which is the Ayatollah's pregnant pause about how to interpret NIEs.

Jeffrey 32:56

Ah, that's kind.

Aaron 32:57

Thank you.

Jeffrey 32:57

I thought that was true. Well, maybe it just means the rest of them are terrible.

Aaron 33:00

No, no. That was good because they both are actually saying the exact same thing without contradicting one another. But – so until they flight test or until they prove that they have a warhead rugged enough in some respect – I don't know how they would actually prove it – It really left up to evaluate judgments and how you actually read the intelligence.

Jeffrey 33:21

Well, so the thing that the thing that the DNI has tended to say when they've been pressed on this is they could do it, but they haven't yet demonstrated the full range of technologies, which basically means they haven't put a warhead on a missile and fired it over Japan. Which is a good thing. Yeah. Like, why do we want to encourage them to do that?

We don't. You know, like we this is exactly what happened with the Chinese in the 60s, which is we talked about how just because they had tested a nuclear weapon didn't mean that they could put one on a missile. And just to show us what a great idea that talking point was, the Chinese put one on a missile and fired it across the country.

Aaron 33:54

Yeah. I mean that's the only time any country has put a live warhead on a missile. No.

Jeffrey 34:00

We did it.

Aaron 34:01

We did it?

Jeffrey 34:02

Yeah. We had a big debate about – I think it was Barry Goldwater said we were building a Maginot line of missiles. He thought they might not work because he was a bomber guy. And so there was a huge debate about testing one and ultimately the U S settled on well, we did two things. There were some high altitude nuclear tests.

And so they put them on missiles and they went up, but there's one operation frigate bird, which was a Polaris missile fired at reduced range. And actually the warhead turned out to be unreliable for other reasons and was later withdrawn from the stockpile. But in this case it worked.

Aaron 34:39

I had no idea. Now I feel like an idiot on the podcast. But anyways. No, no, no.

Jeffrey 34:43

It's an incredibly obscure thing and almost nobody talks about it.

Aaron 34:47

I had no idea. Wow. Okay. Okay. Well, let's hope they don't fall on our footsteps and the Chinese footsteps. Right.

Jeffrey 34:53

So I would like to stop saying this thing about them. Like, oh, they have yet to demonstrate. No, stop. Just stop talking.

Aaron 35:00

But you said something. I think we need to tease the audience. You mentioned something about making compact and then you could do so without testing.

Jeffrey 35:09

Ah, yes. Yes, yes, yes. I got to go through this very carefully. We won't do this in this podcast, but I have just written an article trying to review some of the debate about whether there was a missed DPRK nuclear test in May 2010. I think that it is not proven and that many of the things are coincidences.

And I did my very best to lay that out in a clear and accurate way. But you know, I have lots of angry letters and I need to go through those angry letters very seriously and make sure that I didn't miss anything really terrible.

Aaron 35:49

So listeners, if you're out there, tease, there will be a future show about the May 2010 test or no test debate, correct?

Jeffrey 35:58

Yeah, almost certainly. I'm just hoping, you know, you know, I'm just hoping that it's, it's, it's one that is more than just, I mean, the problem is I spent like 3000 words writing like I don't know.

Aaron 36:11

Sometimes you just don't know. But there are new satellite photos which suggest something that we do know that was rumor out there for a while. Scorched earth.

Jeffrey 36:21

Yeah, it's not all nuclear, right? We'll wrap up with this.

Aaron 36:23

It's not all nuclear. We can go conventional.

Jeffrey 36:25

Oh, boy. Boy, we are violating the rule to end on a happy note.

Aaron 36:29

No, I mean this is just an absurd note. I mean absurdly obscene note. Let's put it that way.

Jeffrey 36:34

Yeah. So – And actually, I don't remember the second organization. Joe Bermudez at All Source Analysis and a – U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea? Yep. Have released a report. There have been rumors for many years that the North Koreans have unusual execution methods. And many people, myself included, are very cautious about such stories. But one of them was that they use anti-aircraft anti-aircraft guns to execute people, which, you know, given the caliber of the, the ammunition would, you know, just tear a person to shreds.

I mean, it's, it's, you know, so out of proportion to what you're trying to do which I guess would be the point. But the, yeah, Bermudez and the folks at, what was the name again?

Aaron 37:32

The U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea.

Jeffrey 37:34

Yep. Those people seem to have stumbled across a satellite picture that does seem to show a firing range. Yes. Does kind of look to me like anti-aircraft guns.

Aaron 37:50

Yep. Yep. 50 caliber.

Jeffrey 37:53

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The kind of giant machine guns. Right.

Aaron 37:57

Russian made for the 1950s.

Jeffrey 37:59

Yeah. And, you know, it does kind of look like people standing up. And I don't know why you'd stand downrange. First of all, I don't know why you'd put such a thing lined up in a range. Who do I? And I don't know why you'd stand downrange.

Aaron 38:16

You know, and it's not – I'm not a –

Jeffrey 38:20

This is well below my level of expertise or outside of my level of expertise. I think below because I – it's not nuclear. It's small arms. I kind of – I don't – I'm not as focused on that.

Aaron 38:32

Well, I'm looking at the picture. I mean it seems like a bunch of anti-aircraft guns with what looks like people and a firing range with a big berm behind it so the bullets don't go on until – for forever essentially.

Jeffrey 38:46

Yeah, that's what it looks like to me too.

Aaron 38:48

But – That is the one way where open source – we aren't just looking at buildings. We aren't just looking at or making missile models. These two organizations came across something rather morbid, more morbid than the potential of a future warhead that we shouldn't encourage them to test.

Jeffrey 39:10

Yeah, so that's an unhappy note to end on, but I do think that if you step back from it all, it is kind of amazing, the world that we live in. I don't think that 20 years ago you could have imagined talking about North Korea's... I mean, we always talk about how North Korea was a closed society, right?

And the level of detail and conversation that we can have, whether it's execution methods or... Green screens over Kim Jong-un's hair. Yeah, there's just a level of detail about North Korea and interactiveness as they sort of fuss with the signatures that I think would have been really hard to imagine 20 years ago. So it's kind of a cool, cool area to be working in at the moment.

Aaron 39:53

No, I agree. I look forward to more podcasts on this. It's sort of outside my area of expertise. So I always learn a lot when we have this conversation.

Jeffrey 40:00

Yeah, although you did some great open source yourself with the Turkish convoy.

Aaron 40:04

Well, when it comes to my area of expertise, I'll take a little credit. I can do pretty good open source, but I don't spend as much time slaving over the satellite photos as you do when it comes to the NORCs.

Jeffrey 40:16

Well, I've got to run. I've got to pick up my kids. I think we're going to go to a museum and make a pool this afternoon.

Aaron 40:23

Excellent. So thanks, everybody, for listening. And please do leave us a review on iTunes if you like the show. It helps us out a lot. And please do take the time. We appreciate it.

Jeffrey 40:33

But only if you like the show.

Aaron 40:34

Only if you like the show. Yeah, we don't accept bad reviews. So thanks, everybody, for listening.

Jeffrey 40:40

And thanks, Jeffrey, and enjoy the pool. Bye.