Iran’s Four Steps

Jeffrey Lewis 0:05

You are listening to the Arms Control Wonk podcast, a podcast on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. I'm Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

Anne Pellegrino 0:17

And I am Anne Pellegrino, a project manager and research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in foggy Monterey. We don't have Aaron with us because he made a baby. The baby is super cute. We're really excited for you, Aaron.

Jeffrey 0:35

He is on paternity leave, which is why he is not with us. But we have to talk about Iran and its steps away from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Anne 0:52

Do you remember that time way back when, when we recorded what was probably the greatest podcast ever with Aaron and Corey Hinderstein from NTI? And the audio didn't work.

Jeffrey 1:11

That was very upsetting.

Anne 1:13

We lost.

Jeffrey 1:13

It was very upsetting. We had made a few wonky errors in an earlier podcast, and Corey came on to set us straight. And it was a wonderful discussion, followed by the soul-crushing realization that we had not recorded her audio. Let's do better. You want to talk about what the Iranians are up to and how we're all going to f***ing die?

Anne 1:38

Yeah, yeah. So to kind of set the scene first, there's been a couple things that have come out in the news in the past few days that are kind of all about the same thing, but we kind of have to put them back in their kind of linear order. So we were alerted on Twitter to a video released by FARS of 30 new IR6 uranium centrifuges released.

That are spinning. The video is making its way around Twitter, and it was certified wonk porn is the term. I think so. So there was that. This morning, there were reports that an IAEA inspector was detained briefly. We'll kind of talk about that, I think, at the end. And then also... Yesterday, Rouhani, in a televised speech, announced the fourth step in a set of still reversible commitments that are still reversible kind of steps that Iran has taken away from the JCPOA.

So we should go all the way back to step number one and kind of go... Go from there.

Jeffrey 3:04

Yeah, I think that's a really good idea because each of these steps, I think, has been presented in the press as being a kind of singular event. And that means that the context in which the steps have been taken is lost. And the Iranians actually have been really careful about using this language of first step, second step, third step, fourth step.

And so I think they're being quite clear, but it's not necessarily coming through in Western press reporting.

Anne 3:36

Right. And from everything that I've read, it is, again, the language used is, we are taking this action. If you do not respond to us, we will take a further action. And for whatever, you know, the United States, Europe can't really get its act together to kind of respond to these steps. So it... Things have played out fairly predictably, I would say.

But anyways, step one.

Jeffrey 4:07

Let's run through them.

Anne 4:09

All the way back May 8th, when Rouhani announced that Iran would stop selling its rich uranium and heavy water deposits. And the timeline for a response was 60 days.

Jeffrey 4:25

Right, or we were going to get step two.

Anne 4:27

Yes, which was they were going to increase their enrichment by a couple percentage points and then restart the reactor at Arak.

Jeffrey 4:37

Right, although weirdly they don't appear to have done the second one.

Anne 4:42

So they have not, as far as we know right now, and according to the IAEA reports, the reactor at Arak is still dormant.

Jeffrey 4:54

Right, and they haven't begun reconstructing it along its original lines, which surprises us. But they did do the first part of that second step after 60 days. By the way, I got to kick the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesperson after Rouhani's speech. Not only did they say that they were going to stop selling enriched uranium, but then they subsequently announced that they were going to speed up the enrichment of uranium to make sure that they would breach the limit before the 60 days were up.

Yes. Right.

Anne 5:24

Yeah. Well, yes, if you were going to take the next step, you got to be ready to take the next step at 60 days.

Jeffrey 5:31

Well, yeah. I mean, you know, so Rouhani says they're going to breach the limit on the amount that they have. And if they don't get satisfaction 60 days, then they're going to increase the level of enrichment. But I think that they were not on target to get over the 300 kilograms within the 60 days. So they had to, like, crank it up to make good on the threat.

Right. Which I just found amusing. I mean, it's neither here nor there, right? It's a symbolic thing to break that number. And they wanted to make sure that they did it. But yeah, 60 days pass and we don't do anything. So step two. Obviously, they don't get satisfaction from the United States and the Europeans. The U.S. doesn't come back in.

They're unhappy with how the Europeans are responding to sanctions. And so we get step two.

Anne 6:15

Yeah. So that approximately 30 days, 60 days later was July 1st. And so that was when Iran took its next step, which was exceeding the 3.67% enrichment level. And so currently Iran is now enriching at 4.5%.

Jeffrey 6:37

Which is not like great news, but again, was the kind of thing that could be pretty quickly solved by downblending. So again, you know, it's another reversible step. And happily, they don't restart construction at Arak, which would have been like harder, I think, to undo.

Anne 6:58

So fast forward another two months, another 60 days, and we are at September and Rouhani announces this third still reversible step. And that was that Iran was going to abandon all of its R&D commitments.

Jeffrey 7:17

Yeah, and he even used that language of the third step, which I think is a It's one of these things that, you know, I know I said it at the beginning, but I think it's worth repeating, really comes through. I mean, the Iranians are outlining these as progressive steps. It's a little bit like our progressive discipline here at Middlebury.

If we do something bad, right, they can't just fire you. They have to actually, like, go through these steps. And I think, you know, Hassan Rouhani is trying unsuccessfully a little progressive discipline with Donald Trump.

Anne 7:48

Yes. So Iran sends a letter to the IAEA stating that they will begin installing new things, which happens to be IR-6 centrifuges at the pilot fuel enrichment plant at Natanz.

Jeffrey 8:04

Yeah, the IAEA actually published a summary of the letter and was invited to verify that, yes, indeed, things were being installed, including those 30 IR-6 machines that we later saw in that video.

Anne 8:18

We'll put the video in the show notes because it's actually quite detailed. But something that you pointed out.

Jeffrey 8:25

I really like that they had a sign on it.

Anne 8:27

Oh, yeah. It's in English, too. It says, let's go to it. 30 Machine IR6 Cascade. Yeah. Thank you. It's very much for a Western audience for obvious reasons.

Jeffrey 8:40

So, I mean, I think the thing, I mean, the thing to note here, right, is that the Iranians in September say that they are abandoning the R&D commitments publicly. Rouhani gives a speech. They send a letter to the IAEA. They invite the IAEA to come look. The IAEA can see that certain things are being set up. And then just for good measure, the Iranians release a video.

So, like, step taken. They still don't get what they want. And it brings us to today.

Anne 9:06

Yeah. So yesterday, Rouhani, in a televised speech, announced step four, which was that they were going to begin feeding gas into the existing centrifuge cascades at Fordow.

Jeffrey 9:24

Right. And as part of the JCPOA, Iran's not supposed to be doing any enrichment at Fordow. It's supposed to be only stable isotope separation. Happily, I will note, according to an Iranian journalist, they are only feeding uranium into the cascades that had already had uranium in them. And so there are two cascades that were set up for stable isotope separation, which were pristine.

And they're not going to feed those, which is good, because once you feed UF-6 into a cascade, It can only do uranium enrichment. You can't really clean them.

Anne 9:58

So again, it's reversible. I was going to ask that question as to why it matters that it's going through existing cascades instead of the new ones.

Jeffrey 10:08

I was very worried they were going to pollute the two stable isotope separation cascades. But they didn't, right? So again, I think we are still in this universe of reversible steps, right? Now, you know, like, I am glad that the Iranians are trying this, like, very clever, calibrated strategy. But they're negotiating, you know, with a 70-year-old lunatic who, like, is not getting any of this.

I mean, it's, I don't think it's going to work.

Anne 10:43

It's equally too blunt and too subtle for Donald Trump to do anything with.

Jeffrey 10:52

Well, you know, I think at a more fundamental level, you know, the administration is not going to admit that it f***ed up. Like, they're not going to admit that they were wrong.

Anne 11:03

Does anybody now realize that they were wrong? Yet.

Jeffrey 11:09

Are we at a stage where that is like where people are like kind of like, oh, I don't think the arguments against the agreement were made in good faith. And so they're not in that sense. They haven't been proven wrong. Right. They weren't against the agreement for the reasons they said. This is like when Mark Dubowitz was walking around like we're going to get a better deal.

Like that argument was not offered in good faith. The idea of a better deal was offered with the purpose of destroying the agreement. And so the agreement is dying. And so in that sense, they're not wrong.

Anne 11:42

Perfect is the enemy of good people.

Jeffrey 11:44

Yeah, it's a great strategy. I use it all the time at work. But, you know, there are these arguments, right, which is they said, oh, Iran won't restart its nuclear program. Pompeo literally said that. And, like, now we see all these steps. So, you know, I don't think... It's certainly not in their political interest to admit that they're wrong.

But I think at a deeper level, they don't actually care. What they want is the sense of crisis. This is my old joke about David Albright. It's really the Institute for Scary Iran Stories. This is like their bread and butter. Oh my gosh, Jeffrey. If you're working for FDD, you're going to get defunded if this problem goes away.

You know, I think David was pissed he couldn't do his little breakout calculations anymore. Now he can do them again. He's happy. So, you know, I don't think we're, I just don't think we're going to get into this period where, well, we went through this with North Korea. I mean, I always say, if you like a nuclear-armed North Korea, you're going to love walking away from the JCPOA.

We still don't admit that we had a diplomatic solution in place, which, while deeply imperfect, was working much better than the currency.

Anne 12:54

Yeah.

Jeffrey 12:54

Right.

Anne 12:55

Yeah.

Jeffrey 12:55

So, you know, like we're not like that's just not they're just never going to admit that. Which is why, you know, remember moms, your kid is going to have to die in the invasion of Iran because otherwise Lindsey Graham might have to admit he's an idiot. Jesus, Jeffrey. Is that too dark? That's really dark. I lived through the invasion of Iraq.

Do you think any of those people feel bad about it?

Anne 13:17

No. Have they apologized? Have they like left public life in shame? No. And there's there's quite a fanboy video or movie of Dick Cheney, which just like made me want to vomit the entire time I watched it.

Jeffrey 13:35

Yeah. So, you know, I mean, it's dark, but like. Tell me that thing my dad used to say, tell me what I said was wrong. Oh, my gosh. Maybe not appropriate, I will admit.

Anne 13:49

But, okay. Darkness aside, the bright side is that, again, all of these steps remain reversible. Have we... I don't know if we've fully found a full transcript of Ruhani's speech yesterday, but have they indicated, like, fifth and sixth steps, or...

Jeffrey 14:11

I have not been able to find the whole thing. I am looking. I am sure there will be fifth and sixth steps. I shouldn't say I'm sure. But, you know, I would expect them to continue to ramp up the pressure. And by the way, while these steps are reversible, I have to say, the R&D stuff really worries me.

Because... We're not going to get a better deal. Iran has more leverage now, not less, because they are making progress on better centrifuges. And so just like, I mean, I lived through this. I remember we had this huge, stupid debate when Iran had a single cascade of centrifuges at the pilot fuel enrichment plant. And I was the crazy lunatic who was like, let them keep the one cascade.

Cut the deal now and let them keep the one cascade. And people are like, the only acceptable solution is zero. And then what do we end up compromising on? You know, like thousands. And so, you know, we're not going to get a better deal. Like, if we actually come back to this and start negotiating with the Iranians again and The Iranians don't really want to negotiate a new deal, but I mean, if we go back into the deal, the Iranian R&D is way closer, way further along, and the sunsets are way closer, and they just have a lot more money.

And so if you imagine trying to negotiate what comes after the JCPOA, like the Iranians is going to have a lot more leverage than they would have had had Donald Trump never, never walked away from it. And people are going to have to admit that we effed up and that we're going to get a worse deal. And they can't do it with North Korea, right?

They still can't admit that North Korea has ICBMs with nuclear weapons. They were always trying to go back to the deal that they pissed away. I, you know, I'm really worried they're not going to be able to make that same deal. Judgment, and, and, and admit that they screwed up, and that whatever deal we get with the Iranians, if we get anything, is, is gonna be worse. I, yeah. The Art of the Deal, people, it's a fine book. It just wasn't written by Donald Trump and doesn't bear any resemblance to his life. There's one more thing I want to say.

Anne 16:37

I think I know what you're going to say and I wanted to prompt you into it. So prompt me. These steps have occurred at places that we know about that are declared that the IAEA can verify. So what does that mean for Iran's bomb prospects?

Jeffrey 17:02

You know, one of the things I don't like about the This is not a complaint about the press coverage in the sense that people are doing anything wrong. Because Iran has this very public process of creating press events by taking these specifically enumerated steps. But as you say, they are occurring at known facilities. They are being publicly announced.

The IAEA is being invited in to look. The Iranians are giving briefings. They've now released video. This is a public campaign to induce the United States to return to the agreement and to win back the sanctions relief that Iran believed it purchased when it agreed to the deal. This is not Iran building a nuclear weapon. It is also not what it will look like if Iran decides to truly ditch the deal and build a nuclear weapon.

One of the conversations we had leading up to the JCPOA was – Iran, I don't believe... Sure, David Albright wants to do his little breakout calculation all the time with declared facilities. I don't think the Iranians are going to send out a press release that says, hey, we're building a bomb. We're doing it in tons. It's going to take us 42 days.

So go ahead and attack us. That's not a thing they're going to do. I think if support inside Iran collapses... For the agreement, whether that's Rouhani giving up defending it, or whether it's a supreme leader empowering people to go ahead and start cheating without even telling Rouhani. You know, you really, the politics of this, I think, are really offstage for us.

I think the Iranians are going to build a covert facility someplace. You know, it's what they did with Lavizan, which then they bulldozed. It's what they did with Natanz, which then they had to admit to, and it's what they did with Fordow. And so, you know... There's this whole question of, like, are the Iranians walking away from this deal, which is kind of answered with, well, they're taking steps away, but those steps are designed to elicit us to return to the deal.

The question of, like, when the Iranians actually give up and try to build a bomb, I think that has nothing to do with these steps, right? That will happen at different facilities someplace else that I hope we will spot.

Anne 19:30

It's like whack-a-mole.

Jeffrey 19:32

Right. So, I mean, that's the question is, you know, I think one of the reasons we got the JCPOA is the US intelligence community had done such a wonderful job in detecting these facilities. Right. The Iranians could not be confident that they could construct an underground facility and not get caught because they had been caught three times.

Right. Lavizan was revealed. Natanz was revealed and Fordow was revealed. And so at some point, if you're the supreme leader, you think, well, you know, maybe I'm not going to get away with this. But if you look at it from our perspective, like, yeah, how good are we at whack-a-mole, right? We're three for three right now in the U.S. Like, is it reasonable to ask the intelligence community to go four for four, five for five, six for six?

Like, at some point, they're going to miss one, right? And it's not because they're incompetent. It's because it's hard. And presumably, eventually, the Iranians will get lucky, all of which is why we should go back to the deal and just be happy. It's not a happy note, Anne.

Anne 20:37

No, well, I have a Monterey local happy note. What's that? The two escaped convicts have been caught again.

Jeffrey 20:48

Oh, that's lovely.

Anne 20:50

Yeah. Did you know that two murderers had escaped from the Monterey County Jail? No, I had not known that.

Jeffrey 20:56

And this is a graphic illustration of my cookie problem. I should be reassured by the catching. But in fact, I am disturbed to learn that there were two murderers who had been able to escape in the first place.

Anne 21:11

Yes, and one was spotted actually at the Motel 6 in Marina by the Walmart last night, and then there was a standoff. He escaped, and then they have been caught again. That's just wonderful. Anyways.

Jeffrey 21:31

All right. Well, Anne, thanks for coming on and talking with me about Iran's steps.

Anne 21:38

You are quite welcome. Aaron, we miss you, but enjoy your time off.

Jeffrey 21:43

We miss you. And if you want to support a new pair of shoes for Aaron's baby, we have a Patreon to support the podcast. It's $5 a month, $3 if you are a student, and you get access with that to our Slack page at And to our little mini-pod series, Brilliant Pebbles. You can go ahead and find that at patreon.com slash acwpodcast.

So, Anne, hey, one more time, thanks for coming on. You're quite welcome. And thank you for listening.