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It’s a good question, one that we will try to answer tomorrow afternoon.

Special guest star likely to appear. There is a little reception afterward. It will be awesome, I promise.

Thousands, Hundreds, or Zero?
How Many Nuclear Weapons Do We Need?

Nuclear weapons are the most destructive weapons ever invented. However, since the end of the Cold War, they have received little attention from the highest levels of government. There are many questions that need examination, including:

What role do nuclear weapons play in United States national security policy?
How many nuclear weapons does the United States need?
Is there a nuclear posture that can command bipartisan support?
Is the elimination of nuclear weapons feasible or desirable?
Join New America Foundation’s Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative and AAAS’s Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy for a discussion of these and other important questions.

To register for this event, go to the AAAS website.

Start: 05/07/2008 – 2:30pm
End: 05/07/2008 – 4:00pm
AAAS
1200 New York Ave, NW 2nd Floor
Washington, 20005
United States

Dr. Arnold Kanter
Principal and Founding Member, Scowcroft Group

Dr. Morton Halperin
Director, US Advocacy, Open Society Institute

Dr. Barry Blechman
Co-Founder, Henry L. Stimson Center

Moderator
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
Director, Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative, New America Foundation
Publisher, www.ArmsControlWonk.com

Comment [13]

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McClatchy correspondents Jonathan Landay, Warren Strobel, and Nancy Youssef have a cool new blog called Nukes and Spooks.

Comment

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Peter Zimmerman, late of King’s College London, sends along a challenge that I am calling “wonk school.”

Peter proposes a series of take-home exams to see how well various readers do analyzing overhead images. And, as an inducement, he is offering to buy a pint of (good) beer for the best answer to the exam at a tavern of my choosing in Dupont Circle.

This is a take-home examination; There is an honor code. Send answers to: peter.zimmerman [at] cox.net.

The full text of the assignment is in the comment section.

Comment [20]

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After provocative articles in Foreign Affairs (The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy), International Security (The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy) and The Atlantic (Superiority Complex: Why America’s growing nuclear supremacy may make war with China more likely), Notre Dame’s Keir Lieber and Dartmouth’s Daryl Press are brining their road show to the New America Foundation on Friday at 12:15 to talk whether the US-China nuclear balance is going to be stable or not.

I don’t agree with many (any?) of their conclusions, but they are both smart guys who like a good argument. It should be fun.

You can RSVP online

How Many Nukes Does it Take?
Deterrence Theory and Chinese-U.S. Nuclear Relations

Most scholars and policymakers favor stemming the tide of nuclear proliferation, even as they acknowledge the pacifying effects of established nuclear arsenals on great power relations. When it comes to nuclear arsenals, how robust must a country’s nuclear arsenal be—how much is enough? Some of the key variables in existing studies – e.g., the nuclear “balance of power” – have been poorly conceived, and the data used to measure the nuclear balance and its effect on policy has come from suspect sources. High quality declassified evidence began to percolate just as the Cold War ended and analysts turned their attention to seemingly more important topics.

With an eye toward future potential problems in the U.S.-China relationship, Keir Lieber and Daryl Press will evaluate four major schools of deterrence theory with some of the newly available evidence from the Cold War. Their preliminary findings indicate that we should not be complacent about the deterrent effects of the short-to-medium term nuclear balance between the U.S. and China.

Start: 04/18/2008 – 12:15pm
End: 04/18/2008 – 1:45pm
New America Foundation
1630 Connecticut Ave, NW 7th Floor
Washington, 20009
United States

http://www.newamerica.net/events/2008/how_many_nukes_does_it_take

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James Acton is going to be in town to give a couple of talks — one at AEI and the other, Nuclear Mind Reading: Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and the IAEA at the New America Foundation on Wednesday at 12:15. (RSVP)

To celebrate, we are going to throw a Happy Hour at the Big Hunt on Thursday at 6:00.

Join me to toast James and (gently) mock his excruciating British-ness.

Comment [5]

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I’m off to DC next week. I’m going to be appearing at the American Enterprise Institute on Tuesday and the New America Foundation on Wednesday. It’s what you call a bipartisan approach.

At AEI I’m a panellist at a one-day conference entitled The Crisis in Nonproliferation: Meeting the Challenge.

At New America (bet you can’t guess who’s hosting me there), I’ll be giving a talk on Nuclear Mind Reading: Iran’s Nuclear Intentions and the IAEA.

Just thought I’d share.

Comment [6]

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And the nominees are …

The following individuals have been nominated to the Commission by the House Armed Services Committee:

• William Perry, Commission Chairman, former Secretary of Defense;
• John Foster, Director Emeritus of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory;
• Lee Hamilton, former Congressman and Vice Chair of the 9/11 Commission;
• Keith Payne, CEO and President, National Institute for Public Policy;
• Ellen Williams, University of Maryland Distinguished Professor; and
• Harry Cartland, former physicist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

The following individuals have been nominated to the Commission by the Senate Armed Services Committee:

• James Schlesinger, Commission Vice Chairman, former Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Defense;
• John Glenn, former Senator and NASA astronaut;
• Fred Ikle, former Director, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency;
• Morton Halperin, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs;
• James Woolsey, former Director, Central Intelligence Agency; and
• Bruce Tarter, former Director, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

For the terms of reference and some background, see Strategic Posture Commission ACW, May 11, 2006

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How’d you like to make 10 Large writing about nonproliferation?

Well, let me introduce you to the Doreen and Jim McElvany 2008 Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest:

The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and
The Nonproliferation Review are pleased to announce the
Doreen and Jim McElvany
2008 Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest

Grand Prize: $10,000*
Outstanding Student Essay Prize: $1,000

The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute of International Studies strives to combat the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons to state and non-state actors by training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating timely information based on cutting-edge research and analysis.

In an effort to spur new scholarship and policy initiatives to address today’s vexing proliferation problems, CNS and its journal, The Nonproliferation Review, are launching an essay contest. The contest is designed to find and publish the most outstanding new papers in the nonproliferation field. Although we will not exclude essays with a historical orientation (if they provide guidance for current or future policy), our priority is to generate new insights and recommendations for resolving contemporary nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons challenges, including those involving both state and non-state actors.

Eligibility: This contest is open to persons worldwide, except for current faculty, staff, interns, and students of the Monterey Institute of International Studies, members of The Nonproliferation Review editorial board, and anyone involved in reviewing or judging submissions. To be eligible for the student prize, an entrant must be enrolled at a college or university at the time of submission. A team of authors comprising one or more students and non-students is not eligible for the student prize.

*Students are eligible for the grand prize.

How to Enter: On or before March 31, 2008, e-mail your entry to essaycontest[at]miis.edu. A valid entry consists of two parts: (1) a completed official cover sheet [Word DOC] indicating the name(s) of the author(s), address, telephone number(s), e-mail address(es), indication of status as a student at the time of entry (yes or no, undergraduate or graduate), date of birth, title of the submission, and a one paragraph biography of the author(s) (the cover sheet is the only place where this information should appear); and (2), the submitted essay.

Submission guidelines: Entries should not exceed 10,000 words (including endnotes), or approximately 40 double-spaced pages. All entries must be the original, unpublished work of the author(s) and must not be under consideration for publication elsewhere. All entries must be submitted as a Microsoft Word document and must conform to The Nonproliferation Review’s style guidelines. Potential entrants are strongly encouraged to review recently published articles in The Nonproliferation Review to become familiar with our style and format, as well as recent scholarship in this area. To preserve anonymity, self-referential endnotes and excessive citation of one’s own work are discouraged. Submissions that do not adhere to these guidelines will not be considered.

Submission deadline: 11:59 PM (Eastern time, North America), March 31, 2008

Judging: Upon receipt, all submissions will be logged, acknowledged via e-mail, and assigned a unique entry number that will replace the cover sheet for identification purposes. Anonymized submissions will then be forwarded to The Nonproliferation Review’s editors for screening to ensure compliance with all contest rules. Submissions that do not comply with the rules will not be considered.

Once all submissions have been logged and screened, they will be forwarded to the judging panel, comprised of selected members of the CNS staff, the Review editorial board, and other experts in the field. A list of the judges will be posted on the contest web site after the winners have been announced. Judging will be based equally on the following criteria: originality, creativity, adherence to the theme, feasibility of recommendations, and writing quality. CNS reserves the right to choose fewer than two winners if, in its sole discretion, it does not receive a sufficient number of eligible and qualified entries. Judges’ decisions are final and binding on all matters relating to this contest.

Winner notification: Winners will be notified by telephone, mail, and/or e-mail on or before June 30, 2008. If a winner cannot be contacted within 14 days of the initial attempt, CNS reserves the right to disqualify the designated winner and award the prize to a runner-up selected by the judges. Information about the winning entries will be posted on the contest web site on or before June 30, 2008.

Prizes: One Grand Prize of $10,000 will be awarded to the author(s) of the best paper from all entries, as determined by the panel of judges. After the Grand Prize winner is selected, non-student entries, which will not be identified to the judges as such until this stage, will be set aside and the judges will select the best overall student essay (or the second best, if a student submission wins the Grand Prize) for the $1,000 Outstanding Student Essay Prize. In the case of an entry with multiple authors, the prize will be divided equally between the authors. The winning papers will become the property of CNS and may be published in a future issue of The Nonproliferation Review, which will have sole discretion over the manner and timing of publication. Any and all federal, state, and local taxes on a prize, and any other costs, fees, and expenses associated with the acceptance and use of a prize are the sole responsibility of the winners.

Ownership/Use: All submissions shall become the property of CNS and The Nonproliferation Review for a period not to exceed six months from the submission deadline of March 31, 2008. All rights will revert to the author(s) by that date or upon receipt of a letter from The Nonproliferation Review releasing such rights, whichever comes first.

General/Legal: By participating, each entrant agrees: (a) to abide by these rules and the decisions of CNS and the judges, which shall be final and binding in all respects relating to this contest; (b) to release, discharge and hold harmless CNS, and its parent, affiliates, subsidiaries, and the respective officers, directors, shareholders, employees, agents and representatives of the forgoing (collectively, “Released Parties”) from any and all injuries, liability, losses and damages of any kind to persons, including death, or property resulting, in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, from entrant’s participation in the contest or any contest-related activity, the acceptance, possession, use or misuse of any awarded prize (including any travel or activity related thereto) or Released Parties’ use of any of the rights granted herein; and © to the use of his/her name, city, state, and country of residence, essay and/or likeness for advertising, publicity and promotional purposes in any and all media, now or hereafter known, worldwide and on the internet, and in perpetuity by CNS and its designees, without compensation (unless prohibited by law) or additional consents from entrant or any third party and without prior notice, approval or inspection, and to execute specific consent to such use if asked to do so.

Released Parties are not responsible for late, lost, damaged, misdirected, incomplete, inaccurate, illegible, undeliverable, delayed, or destroyed entries or mail; or for any computer, network, mechanical, typographical, printing, human or other error or difficulty relating to or in connection with this contest, including, without limitation, errors or difficulties which may occur in connection with the administration of the contest, the processing or judging of entries, the announcement of the prizes or in any contest-related materials. Released Parties are not responsible for entries that are transmitted late or incorrectly or are lost or misdirected for any reason including computer, telephone, paper transfer, human or other error; or for electronic, computer, or telephone malfunction or error, including inability to access any web site associated with the contest or to process any submission thereon. CNS reserves the right in its sole discretion to cancel, modify or suspend any portion of the contest should causes beyond its control corrupt the administration or security of the contest.

Questions or comments: E-mail The Nonproliferation Review editor Stephen Schwartz at Stephen.Schwartz[at]miis.edu.

Comment [4]

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DNI has posted 721 Reports from 2005 and 2006.

Apart from expanded sections on Iran that seem to draw from IAEA reports, I don’t see much new.

Maybe its the jet lag. (Seriously, I am sitting wide awake at 5 am in some Kimono-like thing listening to TLRx.)

Will try to read the DOD report on the Chinese Military Power en route to Singapore.

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Well off to Singapore (after a short romp in Tokyo) for a workshop hosted by the Brookings Institution and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, entitled A New Nuclear World Order: Asian Perspectives.

I can’t believe someone pays me to do this.

Comment [5]

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