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I’ve now gotten several emails asking who was the inspiration for the Cold War Troglodyte. One writer wondered if it was an amalgam of Keir Lieber and Daryl Press. Another thought maybe Ward Wilson.

This is ridiculous.

Given that Press and Lieber are about as far from Ward Wilson as I can imagine, I realize that everyone I’ve attended conferences with for the past few months is probably wondering if post refers to them.

Stop what you are thinking; it is not you.

It is certainly not Keir, Daryl or Ward — all of whom I respect, like tremendously and invited to give talks at New America. It isn’t really anyone — it is a cartoon, not a real person.

As I said in the earlier post, the character was inspired by arguments that annoyed me, not some real-life wonk with a furrowed brow or sulking demeanor. And, since everyone is being all sensitive: the arguments that Keir, Daryl and Ward make, to the extent that I disagree with them, are NOT, REPEAT NOT, the sort of arguments that I would choose to parody with a caveman using powerpoint.

Look, the odds are that, unless I’ve actually told you directly that I think your slides would make nice cave paintings, I don’t think you are a Neanderthal.

It was a joke everybody. You can calm down.

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While Bob and Andreas are minding the store, I just wanted to drop in and plug an event to honor the winners of the 2008 Doreen and Jim McElvany Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest.

The event will feature a keynote by Representative Ellen Tauscher and talks by the winners of the essay contest, including our friends Ward Wilson and Russel Leslie.

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Monterey Institute of International Studies
Washington, D.C. Office

The Nonproliferation Review
invites you to a special event to present the winners of the 2008
Doreen and Jim McElvany Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest

with Keynote Speaker
Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-CA)
Chair, Strategic Forces Subcommittee, House Armed Services Committee
and featuring presentations by authors

Ward Wilson (Grand Prize)
“The Myth of Nuclear Deterrence”

Nathan Pyles (First Runner-Up)
“Building Political Will: Branding the Nuclear-Free-World Movement”

Grégoire Mallard (Best Student Essay)
“Can the EURATOM Treaty Inspire the Middle East? The Political Promises of Regional Nuclear Communities”

Russell Leslie (Best Student Essay)
“The Good Faith Assumption: Different Paradigmatic Approaches to Nonproliferation Issues”

Wednesday November 12, 2008 — 12:00 pm to 2:00 pm
1111 Nineteenth Street, NW, Twelfth Floor
Washington, D.C. 20036

R.S.V.P. to NonproliferationReview[at]gmail.com or call
Deborah Berman at 202-842-3100, ext. 309

A complimentary lunch and copies of the November issue of
The Nonproliferation Review will be available

Comment

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Yes, the place with the beer. Looks like I will be blogging on lightly over the next week or so.

So as to not attempt blogging under the influence of the local brew, I have lined up a couple of superb guest-bloggers.

First up, Anya Loukianova of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Anya has been turning in star performances over at Total Wonkerr. I am really excited that she’ll be blogging for Arms Control Wonk.com.

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I am off tomorrow for a conference in South Korea organized by the Korean National Defence University. I hope to keep posting while I’m there.

In the meantime here is some Friday afternoon reading for you. On Monday I commented on the difficulties of using inspections to uncover clandestine activities absent good intelligence to guide the search, as illustrated by the Kumchang-ri debacle. (Incidentally, a couple of you pointed out that I had overstated the US’ right to conduct inspections at undeclared sites in North Korea as they must be by mutual consent—but that does not alter my conclusions about the problems of using them).

A former alum of this blog suggested I google “Yinhe” for another example. I hadn’t heard about this incident before but it illustrates the general point nicely. Here’s an article by Patrick Tyler from the NYT in 1993:


NO CHEMICAL ARMS ABOARD CHINA SHIP

A Chinese freighter that had been suspected by American intelligence of carrying poison gas ingredients to Iran is carrying no such cargo and will be allowed to go on its way, United States, Chinese and Saudi officials say.

After an inspection at the Saudi port of Damman, certification that the ship was not carrying any chemical weapons cargo was signed Saturday by representatives of all three governments, including an American technical adviser to the Saudis who was not identified.

China denounced “self-styled world cop” behavior by the United States and demanded compensation for what it said was the disruption by United States warships and aircraft of its ocean commerce.

American officials here and in Washington said there would be “no apology” because the United States had acted in good faith on intelligence from a number of sources, all of which proved to be wrong. The United States had said the ship, the Yinhe, had sailed from a Chinese port with an illicit cargo of thiodiglycol, a mustard gas base, and thionyl chloride, used in nerve gas.

American officials would not elaborate on their assertion that they had acted on faulty intelligence. But the incident is an embarrassment to the Clinton Administration, which has been engaged in a war of words with Beijing over human rights, arms sales and a hefty trade imbalance.

The incident also raised questions about how a treaty to control the spread of chemical weapons would be enforced with inspections.

“The chemical weapons convention will not become effective until 1995, and its verification mechanism is yet to be established,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. “If such behavior of self-styled world cop is to be condoned, can there still be justice, sovereign equality and normal state-to-state relations in this world?”

In a dispatch from Saudi Arabia, the New China News Agency said the chief Chinese representative on the inspection team, Sha Zukang, had released the inspection report, which said that “the complete inspection of all the containers aboard the Yinhe showed conclusively” that the chemicals “were not among the ship’s cargo.”

The report also said, “The U.S. Government undertakes to inform the governments of the countries which the Chinese ship Yinhe had been scheduled to call of the results of this inspection and to seek to insure a smooth entry of the ship into the ports concerned to unload its cargo.”

Officials in Washington were said to be discussing whether the United States now had an obligation to pay compensation for the cost of diverting the ship to Saudi Arabia and flying inspection teams to the Persian Gulf port for 10 days of cracking open cargo containers to inspect their contents.

In Washington, the State Department spokesman, Michael McCurry, said late Saturday that the United States felt it had acted “responsibly” and thanked China for the “open” and forthright” way it had submitted the ship for an inspection. Suspicions of a ‘Sting’

The embarrassing conclusion to the incident left United States officials wondering what had misfired after they said they had received intelligence so reliable about the contents of two dozen of the 782 containers on the cargo ship that American officials in late July began demanding through private diplomatic channels that China turn the ship around.

Some American officials said the incident raised questions of whether China had undertaken a “sting” operation to embarrass Washington.

One indication that China had wanted a showdown, officials said, was that China first made the incident public, saying on Aug. 8 that its cargo vessel approaching the Persian Gulf was under intrusive surveillance by American warships.

Another indication, they said, was in the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement this weekend, which said that on Aug. 4, China “put forth a positive proposal for a third-party inspection” of the Yinhe, but that the United States initially refused.

“The Yinhe was compelled to stay adrift on the high sea for more than 20 days with its crew suffering from a shortage of fresh water,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

Anyone wanting more information on future technological developments to help detect clandestine nuclear activity might want to check out a excellent recent article by Vitaly Fedchenko over at Verification.

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I am in Shanghai, attending the Stanley Foundation’s US-China Regional Dialogue on Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation here at Fudan University.

This is part of a two-week tour of China that will include Beijing and Qingdao.

I should be able to blog pretty regularly. In addition, James has promised to resume posting and I’ve lined up three very special guest bloggers for next few weeks.

So, we should be totally covered.

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Or, well, Basingstoke. I am attending the PONI conference at the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

I am recovering from jet lag, but should be back to posting soon.

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So, it turns out that moving to another country is hard work and doesn’t leave you much time for blogging… Who knew?

Anyway, I am now installed at Carnegie and ready to start blogging again—once I have caught up on the news. I have hardly read a news source for a month so it might take a week or so to get back up to speed.

In the meantime, you may have noticed from “new in the stacks”, that my new boss, George Perkovich and I, have just published our new Adelphi Paper, Abolishing Nuclear Weapons. More on that over the next week or so…

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The good folks at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies are sponsoring the second annual Doreen and Jim McElvany 2009 Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest.

Doreen and Jim McElvany 2009 Nonproliferation Challenge Essay Contest

In order to spur new thinking and policy initiatives to address today’s most urgent proliferation threats, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and its journal, the Nonproliferation Review, are sponsoring an essay contest to identify and publish the most outstanding new scholarly papers and reports in the nonproliferation field. Our priority is to generate new insights and specific recommendations for resolving today’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons challenges, including those involving both state and non-state actors.

The contest features a $10,000 grand prize and a $1,000 prize for the most outstanding student essay (students are eligible to win the grand prize).

Entries should not exceed 10,000 words (including endnotes) and must be the original, unpublished work of the author(s) and not under consideration for publication elsewhere. The submission deadline is May 15, 2009.

Complete contest rules and instructions can be found at

http://cns.miis.edu/npr/contest.htm

Last year’s winners — Ward Wilson (Grand Prize) and Russel Leslie (Most Outstanding Student Essay) — were both readers and frequent commentators on the blog. Let’s see if the Arms Control Wonk community can’t produce another pair of winners.

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Well actually Yulee, Florida — home of the White Oak Conservation Center.

Sorry about the light posting of late. James is relocating to the US and I am here in Florida wrapping up a couple of days at a conference sponsored by the National Security Network and the Howard Gilman Foundation.

I’ve got lots of good stuff though, that I will try to share over the next few weeks.

And, yes, those conference-goers are petting a cheetah.

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Jeff gets back tomorrow, so I’m done here.

Thanks for paying attention to my random thoughts.

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