Greetings from Korea.
According to my guide book “North Korea and nukes” is not a socially acceptable topic for conversation here in Seoul. I hope that advice doesn’t apply to participants in a conference on security on the Korean Peninsula because, if it does, I committed a dreadful faux pas over dinner…
According to a recent GSN article, in its June declaration, North Korea declared 30.8 kg of plutonium and announced it had used 2 kg in its 2006 test. While many analysts argue that it is possible to build a first nuclear weapon with less than the 8 kg of Pu that the IAEA suggests is needed, 2 kg really is surprisingly small. David Albright called it “the most puzzling thing in the entire declaration.” And I share his puzzlement. I think it very probable North Korea used at least twice as much.
This evening, however, I had an idea. Maybe North Korea is claiming it only used 2 kg to suggest that the test was not a fizzle but the successful demonstration of a smaller, much more advanced device.
To be clear: I think the test was a fizzle. I can’t imagine that North Korean scientists would have gone for anything other than a simple, easy, reliable device (which would involve lots more than 2 kg of Pu). But the test having failed, North Korea may be trying to hide it by understating the quantity of material it used in the test.
Just a thought. But one that if correct does not bode well for the verification process.
PS As we were coming into Incheon airport, I was able to see North Korea (just). These kind of things are exciting at the end of a 14 hour flight.