Jeffrey LewisRevised Calculation on Iranian Hex

So.

We know that Iran operated 8 cascades between 18 April- 19 August. That is seventeen weeks, 119 days or 2856 hours.

Eight cascades, fed 70 grams of hex per hour, should have consumed 1,600 kg of hex.

Assume the four additional cascades began operating on May 13 (about 14 weeks). The additional four cascades should have consumed another 650 kg, for a grand total of 2,250 kilograms.

Instead, Iran consumed 690 kilograms of hex during that period, for an operating efficiency of about 30 percent.

That’s very low.

What is very odd that is that 260 of those kilograms were consumed between 15 April-22 May.

As a result, all twelve cascades consumed only 430 kilograms in the not quite 13 weeks that followed. Twelve cascades, over the course of 89 days or 2136 hours, should consume almost 1800 kg of hex. That means Iran’s centrifuges operated close to one-quarter of their efficiency, a substantial decrease from the relatively continuous operation between 15 April – 22 May (about half their maximum feed).

Are the Iranians husbanding that Chinese hex?

Do the centrifuges with indigenously produced components not work right?

Is Iran holding back for political reasons?

Comments

  1. Robot Economist (History)

    Dr. J – Request permission to point and giggle a little at Iran’s technical inadequacy.

  2. hass (History)

    Doesn’t matter – they are seeking the “capability” to one day, maybe, at some indefinite point in the future, lob nuclear missiles, perhaps. So, lets bomb them. The choices are clear: either we bomb them or they get the bomb.

  3. johnwbragg (History)

    Stupid question—could they be underreporting?

    And, although from Hass’ tone I’d guess he was being facetious, I’ll sign on to what he said.

  4. hass

    Yes thank you – then, we go after the Canadians. They too have the “capability” to make nukes. Never trust Canadians. Bomb, then verify.

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