Paul at Total Wonkerr adds some value to my post, including reminding readers of a late March story from AFP’s Michael Adler stating that a …
... diplomat said Iran had installed six cascades of 164 centrifuges each at Natanz and was test-running four of the cascades.
That would be 1,640 984 centrifuges.
I propose we follow Saeedi’s advice to “wait for the next 20 days when IAEA inspectors present their reports” to get the number, rather than inferring the worst from A-bomb’s bellicose rhetoric.
Update: My mistake, I too quickly read Adler to say that four more were under construction (rather than being test run). I suspect they have one or more cascades under construction beyond the six at the end of last month.
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I’m confused. You quote this, “diplomat said Iran had installed six cascades of 164 centrifuges each at Natanz and was test-running four of the cascades.” and then say “That would be 1,640 centrifuges.”
But 6 times 164 is 984. So what is the other 656?
— David · Apr 10, 02:16 PM ·
Ummm – doesn’t that make 984? I read that sentence as meaning four of the six are being tested, not six are installed and four others are being tested.
— Muskrat · Apr 10, 02:23 PM ·
Ooh, is this a new one? “A-Bomb” as a nickname for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a.k.a. MC Mahmoud, a.k.a. Mr. “Get Enriched or Die Trying”? I like it! Simplicity is the soul of wit.
— Haninah · Apr 10, 02:41 PM ·
Another (more substantive) point: I’m not sure where you got the 1,640 number from. It seems from Paul’s post that those four cascades being test-run were included in the six total cascades. That’s 656 being run, 984 total.
— Haninah · Apr 10, 02:48 PM ·
6 times 164 is 1640???
— fdf · Apr 10, 03:20 PM ·
Wouldn’t that be 984 centrifuges (of which 656 are being test-run)?
— Kirk Larsen · Apr 10, 03:50 PM ·
Boy, I just totally spaced and misread Adler to say 6 plus 4 rather than 4 of 6.
Apologies.
— Jeffrey Lewis · Apr 10, 03:55 PM ·
Haninah – How about “Moodie the A-Bomb” as President Ahmadinejad’s new handle?
— Robot Economist · Apr 10, 04:11 PM ·
Iran says foreign enrichment offer still stands
Agence France Presse 15 October 2006 0244 hrs
TEHRAN – Iran said Saturday a year-old offer from
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for foreign countries to
handle its uranium enrichment activities still stands
as a way to break the deadlock over its nuclear
programme.
Foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini also
said a suggestion made by Iran earlier this month for
a French led-consortium to enrich uranium for Iran on
Iranian soil remained “appropriate”.
...”Mr Ahmadinejad in his speech last year to the UN
General Assembly proposed that other countries
participate in the uranium enrichment and this
proposal still stands,” Hosseini said, according to
the website of state broadcaster IRIB.
Ahmadinejad had proposed in that speech to “engage in
serious partnership with private and public sectors of
other countries in the implementation of the uranium
enrichment programme in Iran.”
His idea was revived earlier this month when a top
Iranian nuclear official said France should form a
consortium that would manufacture uranium on Iranian
soil and thus break the deadlock.
— hass · Apr 10, 11:21 PM ·
Frankly, I am surprised that anyone would care how many centrifuges Iran is using-they are clearly shooting for industrial enrichment, and will brook no opposition.
Instead, it seems more rational to be concern about Bush ordering a preventative attack on Iran. Iran will predictably escalate, resulting in a war of unknown duration and intensity.
In other words, the imminent grave danger is Washington overreacting, not Iran enriching.
— Brad Arnold · Apr 11, 03:15 AM ·
IAEA has informed Iran that it’s current montoring equipment can cope with 500 zentrifuges, i.e. with 3 cascades of 164, but not with 4 (656).
If Iran runs more than 3 cascades, there’d be a new area of serious conflict with the IAEA unless the monitoring issue, which currently is under discussion, is resolved.
The latest IAEA report cites two cascades already testrun and two more short of completion.
If the additional two are ready for testing now, the 500 limit would be crossed.
If I remember right, Iran defined 2 cascades as “pilot stage”. That stage would be left, too.
In result, it’s likely that two more (i.e 4 in total) cascades are ready to (test)run.
That’s still short of 6 (984) already completed for testing, but in line with the public statements that are available.
Best
— Otfried · Apr 11, 07:26 AM ·
Robot – perhaps “Mahmoudie and the Blow(up)fish”? Ok, that’s a stretch already…
— Haninah · Apr 11, 11:21 AM ·
According to a Reuters report (http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=599052007) IAEA Deputy Director Oli Heinonen found 8 cascades of 164 centrifuges each, when recently visiting Natanz.
If these figures are correct, Iran has speeded up the installation of additional centrifuges beyond the assumptions of both, Al Baradei and our earlier discussions here.
This development highlights the importance of reliable estimates on how many centrifuges Iran can assemble.
— Otfried · Apr 18, 03:27 PM ·
Ottfried:
Estimates here are actually in agreement with Heninonen’s claim.
In this post, I expressed my sense that “I suspect they have one or more cascades under construction beyond the six at the end of last month.”
Six plus two is, well, eight.
I was willing to believe up to ten cascades—which is pretty much the schedule that most of us expected.
— Jeffrey Lewis · Apr 18, 03:41 PM ·