Avatar photoIntelligence Analysis and Bayesian Analysis

I am writing a piece for Arms Control Today on foreign counterspace systems. The mandate was to summarize foreign counterspace capabilities to accompany an article being written by Michael Krepon. The more I look, the more I realize that the intelligence community on this issue is all method, no evidence. Most people reason by taking …

Avatar photoChina and Russia Submit Non-papers in CD

China and Russia submitted a pair of non-papers to the Conference on Disarmament in speeches by Ambassadors Leonid A. Skotnikov (Russia) and Hu Xiaodi (China). The two speeches had a de facto division of labor, with Skotnikov talking substance and Hu talking process. Skotnikov’s reinforced the general argument that this is about rebuilding US-Russian strategic …

Avatar photoNuclear Information Project

Hans M. Kristensen, formerly of the Nautilus Institute and now a consultant to the National Resources Defense Council, has a new project and website. The Nuclear Information Project “is a private, independent, and non-profit project created with the purpose of providing the public with access to declassified documents and analysis about nuclear weapons policy and …

Avatar photoFeel the love

Matt Bunn has a nice foogin/’ summary of the proposed Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) on the Nuclear Threat Initiative website. Apart from saying lots of sensible things–including calling on the Bush Administration to “reverse its new position and return to its long-standing support for a verified fissile cutoff”–Matt has a link to www.ArmsControlWonk.com I …