In my post yesterday, Don’t Shoot Down USA 193, I voiced my “suspicion … that the expected risk to the ISS crew will be surprisingly competitive with the expected risk to persons on the ground” from the falling satellite. My friend, the geographer Tim Gulden, did the math and it turns out my suspicion seems …
Don't Shoot Down USA 193
by | 2008-02-18 | 24 Comments
After a getting multiple e-mails about my quotes in Global Security Newswire and the New York Times, let me make my advice to the Bush Administration, who decided to shoot down USA 193, explicit: DON’T FREAKING DO IT. This is bad policymaking. Take this explanation of the rationale for the decision to intercept the falling …
The Shot
by | 2008-02-14 | 83 Comments
That’s what Ambassador James Jeffrey’s called the decision to use an an Aegis SM-3 to try to shoot down USA 193 in the next 3-12 days. (Transcript should be posted here ; video at the Pentagon Channel.) Holding the aside the politics of this — which are terrible — the briefing on debris risk left …
Russia's Subtle Shift on Iran
by | 2008-02-14 | 23 Comments
Iran’s ballistic missile tests last week have sparked unusually harsh criticism from Russia. According to the BBC, Russian officials have said the tests raised suspicion over the true aim of [Iran’s] nuclear programme. This is remarkable coming from Moscow, and the latest sign of a potentially significant shift in Russia’s stance on Iran. Through 2007, …
