The Institute for Science and International Security has obtained a copy of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s report on Iran. The report makes it clear that Iran has no intention of addressing the most sensitive of the outstanding questions, namely those that are most closely associated with a nuclear weapons development program. Iran continues to …
USA 193 Risk Calculation
by | 2008-02-19 | 31 Comments
In my post yesterday, Don’t Shoot Down USA 193, I voiced my “suspicion … that the expected risk to the ISS crew will be surprisingly competitive with the expected risk to persons on the ground” from the falling satellite. My friend, the geographer Tim Gulden, did the math and it turns out my suspicion seems …
Don't Shoot Down USA 193
by | 2008-02-18 | 24 Comments
After a getting multiple e-mails about my quotes in Global Security Newswire and the New York Times, let me make my advice to the Bush Administration, who decided to shoot down USA 193, explicit: DON’T FREAKING DO IT. This is bad policymaking. Take this explanation of the rationale for the decision to intercept the falling …
The Shot
by | 2008-02-14 | 83 Comments
That’s what Ambassador James Jeffrey’s called the decision to use an an Aegis SM-3 to try to shoot down USA 193 in the next 3-12 days. (Transcript should be posted here ; video at the Pentagon Channel.) Holding the aside the politics of this — which are terrible — the briefing on debris risk left …
