Greetings from the old #nukefest2013. For my regular column at Foreign Policy last week, I pondered the meaning of Kim Jong Un’s Map of Death. In that post, I made some simple estimates of the four targets: If one has but four targets to select, these four reflect a certain logic. North Korea is targeting …
Mad Men
by | 2013-04-07 | 5 Comments
There’s a Mad Man Theory of Deterrence. Does it apply to arms control, too? Here’s the keeper Mad Man quote, found in Richard M. Nixon’s The Real War (1980): International relations are a lot like poker – stud poker with a hole card… Our only covered card is the will, nerve, and unpredictability of the …
South Korea’s Nuclear Defense
by | 2013-04-07 | 23 Comments
In a few weeks, South Korea’s newly-elected President, Park Geun-hye, will arrive in the United States on her first state visit. Between now and then, Washington and Seoul will be working on a diplomatic response to accompany their resolve not to blink should Kim Jong-un launch an attack, and they also want to wrap up two …
Helping Iran Make TRR Fuel
by | 2013-04-05 | 25 Comments
In January I discussed the prospects for including a serious nuclear cooperation component in a future comprehensive deal to resolve the Iran crisis, permitting Russia to provide Iran with PWR fuel-fabrication infrastructure to complete the front end of its civil nuclear fuel cycle and at the same time incentivize Moscow to firmly line up with …
