One of the nicest things about relocating to Monterey is that Avner Cohen, a colleague from my days at the University of Maryland, has relocated too. Avner, like me, is a lapsed philosopher with a deep interest in nuclear weapons — there is probably no one who knows more about the Israeli nuclear weapons program. …
Statistical Diplomacy: A Bayesian Inference Tool for the P5+1+Iran Negotiations
by | 2013-10-14 | 18 Comments
This is an abridged version of the full paper Statistical Diplomacy: Nuclear Negotiating Strategy Applied to Hassan Rouhani (the result of the process I began with “Iran: So Far Away“). I have prepared it as a possible negotiation aid. It is still in working paper form. As such, comments will be thoroughly appreciated. Please email info@harryhalem.com …
Monitoring Iran
by | 2013-10-14 | 33 Comments
ACW is at the forefront, where it belongs, of a debate over the particulars of a worthwhile deal with Iran. Three underlying assumptions need to be met for these particulars to come into play: (1) maximalist conditions are set aside; (2) Tehran is willing to agree to export much of its enriched stocks of fissile …
Kemp: Setting a Goal for Iran Talks
by | 2013-10-10 | 12 Comments
A guest post by R. Scott Kemp. Friend of Wonk R. Scott Kemp is an assistant professor of nuclear science and engineering at MIT, where he directs the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy. Here, he asks what sort of negotiated outcome with Iran would suffice to address the threat of nuclear breakout. The charts in this post, …
