The belief system in nuclear deterrence makes the most sense at the most elementary level: nuclear weapons deter use by an adversary for fear of retaliation in kind. Deterrence therefore requires survivable nuclear capabilities. It doesn’t take much by way of force structure to convey the threat that leaves something to chance, which is the …
The Lesson of Nagasaki
by | 2016-08-07 | 13 Comments
Hiroshima gets all the attention, but Nagasaki teaches the more important lesson. The need to destroy Hiroshima will be forever debated, but the counterarguments were unpersuasive to President Harry Truman and Secretary of War Henry Stimson. A world war had taken the lives of tens of millions. Noncombatants were not spared. When a war-ending weapon …
Not Just Yet for No First Use
by | 2016-07-31 | 11 Comments
The United States is not going to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. Allies who believe otherwise are attached to a fiction and a psychological crutch. But these allies have been badly spooked, first by Vladimir Putin and now by Donald Trump. Despite Putin’s annexation of Crimea and Russian salami-slicing elsewhere around its periphery, I …
No, China Isn’t Punishing North Korea
by | 2016-07-26 | 5 Comments
A few weeks ago, some colleagues new to satellite imagery analysis claimed that China had drastically reduced trade with North Korea to punish Pyongyang for its most recent nuclear test. They made this judgment on the basis of a small number of satellite images of the customs area in Dandong, China and one image of the customs …
