Years

2013

164 posts

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Minding Assad’s Red Line

Now that I’ve had my say on the Obama’s administration’s opportunity to defuse the Syria crisis, let’s consider the other side of the coin. What if doesn’t work? What if the United States, France, and whoever else comes along in the…

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Syria CW Elimination Modalities

I’ve written a column for Foreign Policy arguing that the United States should act on Syria’s offer to accede to the Chemical Weapons Convention. What follows is an initial list of thoughts about the modalities for a United Nations/Organization for…

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Generation Why’s Turn in South Asia

In societies where seniority is highly valued, it’s hard for young analytical talent to be heard, and even harder to connect across the India-Pakistan border, given the difficulties young analysts have in obtaining visas. Retired diplomats and military officers have…

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Acton on CPGS

James Acton has published an excellent new monograph on Conventional Prompt Global Strike, entitled Silver Bullet? Asking the Right Questions About Conventional Prompt Global Strike. You can watch or listen to James present the report. Like everything James writes, it…

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North Korea Machine Tool Sites

I have a post up at 38North with my colleague Amber Lee looking at two sites linked to North Korea’s centrifuge program – the Huichon Ryonha General Machine Factory and the Kanggye General Tractor Plant. These plants have several different…

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Russian Early Warning

  Update | 10:19 am PST 4 September 2013 Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov (aka Anatoly Anin aka Tolya aka Huggy Bear) made a reference to the 1995 Norwegian sounding rocket episode in terms of explaining why Russia is less than…

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Eyes Away from the Prize

The juxtaposition of images of the 1963 March on Washington and the carnage in Syria has prompted melancholy thoughts. The heyday of the civil rights movement came with sustained focus, great leaders, and an abundance of nonviolent foot soldiers. The…

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Disappointing Syria Documents

We now have unclassified fact sheets from the White House and the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee in the United Kingdom. These guys don’t get it. Let me be clear: I think a Syrian military unit most likely used…

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Size Doesn’t Matter

  I’ve been meaning to write something on my objections to a proposal by Crispin Rovere and Kalman Robertson to ban low-yield nuclear weapons. Now, I should say that I think developing low-yield nuclear weapons seems like a pretty terrible…

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Cruise Missile Proliferation

At the moment, the cruise missiles on everyone’s mind are spinning up in the Mediterranean.  But a few weeks ago, I wrote a little piece on the new National Air Space Intelligence Center on ballistic and cruise missile threat that…