Years

2008

317 posts

Article

The IAEA Report on Iran

The Institute for Science and International Security has obtained a copy of IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei’s report on Iran. The report makes it clear that Iran has no intention of addressing the most sensitive of the outstanding questions, namely…

Article

USA 193 Risk Calculation

In my post yesterday, Don’t Shoot Down USA 193, I voiced my “suspicion … that the expected risk to the ISS crew will be surprisingly competitive with the expected risk to persons on the ground” from the falling satellite. My…

Article

Don't Shoot Down USA 193

After a getting multiple e-mails about my quotes in Global Security Newswire and the New York Times, let me make my advice to the Bush Administration, who decided to shoot down USA 193, explicit: DON’T FREAKING DO IT. This is…

Article

The Shot

That’s what Ambassador James Jeffrey’s called the decision to use an an Aegis SM-3 to try to shoot down USA 193 in the next 3-12 days. (Transcript should be posted here ; video at the Pentagon Channel.) Holding the aside…

Article

Russia's Subtle Shift on Iran

Iran’s ballistic missile tests last week have sparked unusually harsh criticism from Russia. According to the BBC, Russian officials have said the tests raised suspicion over the true aim of [Iran’s] nuclear programme. This is remarkable coming from Moscow, and…

Article

French Nuclear Posture

In August, French President Nicolas Sarkozy initiated the drafting of a new white paper on defense and national security (Livre Blanc) under the direction of Jean-Claude Mallet. (The embassy has a recent progress report.) Although we had lots of interesting…

Article

Toward True Security

Oh, and while we are at it with the public service announcements … UCS will release of Toward True Security with Richard Garwin, Frank von Hippel and Lisbeth Gronlund on Wednesday. What: Briefing and discussion about Toward True Security: Ten…

Article

Space Race With China?

Gregory Kulacki and I are doin’ the China ASAT talk again at the New America Foundation, Space Race with China?, on Tuesday at 12:15. Here is a short version of the invite; the whole thing is on the NAF website.…

Article

Forden on the Shahab 3

One of the best things about this damned blog is that really great people will send me little bits of analysis — short pieces that could never make the Washington Post but are totally awesome nonetheless. Click to play. Debris…

Article

Hill on NORK Declaration, Disablement

Chris Hill’s testimony before the Senate has a couple of big, big developments (with the time stamps for the video) — clearing North Korea on the issue of the aluminum tubes (though not the entire uranium enrichment program) at 56:37…