Much to my dismay, I find that I’m still catching up on reading from the summer. In August, Hui Zhang published a new report on China’s uranium enrichment capacity, and he makes a wonderful identification of a new civilian centrifuge facility associated with Plant 814 in Sichuan province. While on the subject of Plant 814, this report’s publication gives me the perfect opportunity to say a few words about the somewhat mysterious gaseous diffusion facility also associated with Plant 814.
The Plant 814 gaseous diffusion facility—commonly referred to as the Heping GDP because of it its proximity to the Heping Yizu (和平彝族), a third-level administrative township of the Yi minority—is also known as the Jinkouhe GDP as it is located near Jinkouhe (金口河), in the Leshan City prefecture of Sichuan province. It is the second of China’s gaseous diffusion plants (the first is in Lanzhou).
- Source: Google Earth
The Plant’s history remains somewhat opaque, but the facility was built as part of the third line industries in the mid-1960s and likely began producing enriched uranium in 1970. It has been difficult to determine the current status of Jinkouhe. China reportedly stopped producing HEU for weapons in 1987, but China does not openly discuss the Jinkouhe GDP. Some analysts have assumed the plant is no longer operational, but as Zhang notes, local press accounts suggest the plant is still operational. China may still enrich uranium for military purposes, including fuel for naval reactors. Indeed, the district remains closed to foreigners, lending credence to the idea that the facility still has a sensitive military purpose:
- Source: http://www.mafengwo.cn/i/840798.html
I’m inclined to agree that the plant remains operational, both for the reasons Zhang cites in his most recent publication and because of something I can see in satellite imagery.
My colleagues at CNS and I have been exploring the idea of using Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the US Geological Survey to detect changes at nuclear facilities. Landsat 8 images, in addition to being free, contain thermal infrared data from thermal infrared sensors (TIRS) on board the satellite. As NASA explains, the TIRS sensors can detect land temperature by using
Quantum Well Infrared Photodetectors (QWIPs) to detect long wavelengths of light emitted by the Earth whose intensity depends on surface temperature. These wavelengths, called thermal infrared, are well beyond the range of human vision.
Most nuclear facilities are not “hot” enough for observable temperature differences to appear, but gaseous diffusion plants are more observable as they are very hot. Unfortunately, the resolution of the thermal infrared images is quite low, only 100 meters. As it happens, the Jinkouhe GDP is enormous, large enough that it is possible to observe a difference in temperature between the gaseous diffusion hall buildings and the surrounding environment at 100m resolution.
At first blush, Landsat 8 imagery appears to confirm that plant remains operational:
- For scale, the Jinkouhe GDP is located in the red rectangle in the top-left quadrant of the image. Source: US Geological Survey
- The image zoomed to the red rectangle which encloses the Jinkouhe GDP. The two long white rectangles are the gaseous diffusion halls, which are warmer than the surrounding environment.
- The image with adjusted contrast for enhanced visibility.
Some Chinese accounts suggest that China has converted all uranium enrichment to centrifuge technology, but there is little evidence to confirm that the Jinkouhe facility has been converted, nor are signs of conversion like construction or increased vehicle activity visible on available satellite imagery. Moreover, centrifuge facilities use less energy and are far “cooler” than a gaseous diffusion plant. One would not expect to see a centrifuge plant on a Landsat 8 thermal image.
How hot is the Jinkouhe GDP? This is a question I’m still trying to figure out how to answer. Just this year we were able at CNS to obtain licenses for ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine, and we are now teaching ourselves how best to process and analyze Landsat 8 imagery. What I can observe at the moment is that the Jinkouhe GDP is hot.
Courtesy of Jeffrey, here is a short clip (from here) to help our readers visualize the “hot” part: