This post is from August 2006. Facts and links may have changed since. See more from that month

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Khan Network: Steve Coll in New Yorker

As far as I can tell, the New Yorker hasn’t posted Steve Coll’s piece on the Khan network yet, but they have a Q&A transcript on their website that’s worth checking out.

This excerpt about the time frame for an Iranian nuclear weapon is interesting:

Q: The question of how fast can’t be answered definitively, but could you give us a sense of the estimates and how reliable you think they are?

A: John Negroponte, the director of National Intelligence, has said, in his most recent public assessment, that the American intelligence community believes that Iran may acquire a nuclear capacity some time in the next decade, meaning from 2010 or 2011 onward. From my reporting, I gather that in private briefings the Bush Administration’s intelligence analysts focus on a five-to-seven-year window, although they emphasize that there’s a fair amount of uncertainty about this estimate. I think the one assertion that the intelligence community seems comfortable with is that it’s not this year or next year and probably not the year after that. However, the more that is discovered about Iran’s research, the more some analysts wonder whether Iran might be able to move faster than the official forecast indicates.

Paul Kerr

Writing on ACW 2004–2021

Paul Kerr has been a research analyst at the Arms Control Association covering missile and nuclear non-proliferation issues since 2002. He also covers weapons of mass destruction developments in South Asia, Northeast Asia, and the Persian Gulf regions, as well as Israel's status within the international non-proliferation regime and U.S. non-proliferation policy.

All posts by Paul Kerr