The President of South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, has something to say.
The complete text will appear in the comments. For now, I’d just like to call your attention to this passage:
Fellow citizens,
We have always tolerated North Korea’s brutality, time and again. We did so because we have always had a genuine longing for peace on the Korean Peninsula. But now things are different. North Korea will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts. I will continue to take stern measures to hold the North accountable.
From this moment, no North Korean ship will be allowed to make passage through any of the shipping lanes in the waters under our control, which has been allowed by the Inter-Korean Agreement on Maritime Transportation. The sea routes meant for inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation must never again be used for armed provocations.
Trade and exchanges between the Republic of Korea and North Korea will also be suspended. We still remember the killing of an innocent South Korean tourist by a North Korean armed guard at the Mt. Kumgang resort. More recently, North Korea unilaterally confiscated South Korean assets at this same resort. Worse yet, the North sank the Cheonan taking the precious lives of our young sailors. Under these circumstances, any inter-Korean trade or other cooperative activity is meaningless.
However, we will continue to provide assistance for infants and children. Matters pertaining to the Kaesong Industrial Complex will be duly considered, taking its unique characteristics into consideration.
From now on, the Republic of Korea will not tolerate any provocative act by the North and will maintain the principle of proactive deterrence. If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense.
A few things leap out.
First, the refusal of passage to shipping. Does this mean that North Korean merchant vessels will be seized, or merely turned back? Will there be case-by-case judgments? This is the angle of most obvious interest from a nonproliferation perspective; it may go well beyond South Korea’s previous decision to join PSI.
Second, by carving out an exception for Kaesong, South Korea is suspending maybe just half its trade with the North, according to Gordon Flake. So the North still has something to lose.
Third, Lee seems to be threatening to shoot at any North Korean military vessel that intrudes past the Northern Limit Line.
I point this out not to invite endless re-litigation of what the proper sea border between North and South is. Let it suffice to say that the North has honored the NLL when it has suited its purposes, and not done so when it hasn’t. Lately, it hasn’t.
We’ll see how the North responds to this challenge. Will they fulminate, but be deterred? Will we be seeing more sea battles in the near future? Lee Myung-bak seems to have intentionally put that choice in Pyongyang’s hands.
From Yonhap:
I have to say, on the initial reading, it strikes a good balance for a man in an untenable position. My pessimistic read is that a NORK ship will be sent (after sufficient belligerent dialogue) through those sea routes, especially if the reason for the attack was rooted in the north’s domestic political situation.
Here, via the Nelson Report, is the North Korean response:
Josh: North Korea could care less at this point about Kaesong. And it appears they expelled all the South Koreans today which was entirely predictable. This is purely a question of inter-Korean politics and the North Koreans arent going to look weak just to make some money.
I heard although I am not sure that one reason Lee didnt shut down Kaesong was that the insurance policies for South Korean companies there say they would get paid unless the North Koreans shut the place down.
It’s also being reported today that NK has kicked all the South Koreans out of Kaesong.
Joel-
I think the NY Times reported that Kaesong wasn’t shut down by the ROK because they were worried the couple of thousand people working there would be used as hostages. I guess their expulsion solves this problem?
As of this writing, at least, and contrary to early reports, the South Koreans have not been expelled from Kaesong.
However, the North Koreans have threatened to seal off access to the industrial area, effectively shutting it down, upon the resumption of Southern propaganda broadcasts.
The New York Times is reporting that the South Koreans are reconsidering propaganda broadcasts. Also, the North Koreans are signaling their desire to keep Kaesong open:
The Chosun Ilbo has more detail:
We’ll have to see if this pattern holds.