Timeline of the 5 April 2009 U’nha-2 Launch. Click on the image for a larger version.
Ok, so I don’t have the amount of confidence in my prediction as the title seems to indicate. But everybody else is making blanket statements so why can’t I?
After returning from the Mid-East on Thursday, I had to catch up quickly on what was going on with North Korea’s missile/rocket program. My post wondering where the launch notification was represents my first attempt to catch up on the DPRK’s activities, after thinking exclusively about Iran for the last two weeks. I’m really uncertain why July 4th was picked up by so many people as the expected launch date. It seems just too soon (I’m talking here about the practical arrangements, not the time necessary to diagnose what went wrong with the last launch and correct it, which is also too short!) and, as far as I can tell, there was absolutely no sighting of the rocket on either launch pad.
Taking a look at the timeline, as determined by various milestones of the previous U’nha-2 launch as reported in the media, indicates it takes about two months to move the rocket to the launch site, assemble it horizontally in an assembly building, erect it on the launch pad, fuel it and wait for good weather to launch. That includes about three weeks warning time North Korea gave by filing a launch notification with international organizations. If we (naively) assume the same amount of time, then they should launch in early August. That assumes the June 1st initial indication of launch preparations (shipping large cylindrical objects by train) that I found was the first one published. It also assumes that intelligence agencies and media organizations are just as efficient as publishing the information as they were the last time. Furthermore, it assumes that North Korea does not need to make any long term preparations that might have been performed for the last launch before the preparations were spotted by the West.
If all of this is true, the first indication should be DPRK’s filing a notification of stay clear zones, probably in about a week. If that happens, everything will be on target for a launch during the first week in August.
Of course, given all these assumptions, I could be proved wrong any day now!
Good point, Geoff!
I’d also expect the minimum launch preparation time to be much longer. Even August might be somewhat optimistic, but let’s wait and see.
BTW, i remember reading something about a second Taep’o-Dong missile shipped to Musudan-Ri and “readied for launch” soon after the failed test in 2006 – and it took about 2.5 years till the next launch…
I’m quite curious how long the North Koreans will take this time.
The other possibility is that they’ll launch from an improvised launch pad without warning. This is essential for a deterrent force. Ideally they’d work the bugs out first launching from carefully prepared pads, but they may be in a rush. Look for excavations under old-growth coniferous forests, close to roads. They might get careless disposing of the dirt.
According to Wikipedia, Korean pines grow to 40-50 meters, so there are trees tall enough to conceal the rocket.
Geoff,
Unless their supply is higher I do not believe they will launch again until they work out all of the kinks from the last launch failure.
I think the hype (if it is even coming from NK) is feather ruffling and nothing more
SuperSean, You certainly could be right and I jsut as certainly dont want to argue that the hype isnt in full swing. But I still take the intelligence reports of large cylindrical objects being moved to the launch site seriously. Lets wait and see if any of the other signatures—“brisk activity at the launch pad” etc.—show up. And, of course, a declaration and notification of danger zones. That, of course, folds politics into the technical issues. My prediction is that the earliest they could launch is the first week in August. As you say, they might decide to do a systematic flight test program. In which case, all of these rumors are just that.
Given the current emphasis on tracking all outbound NK vessels in particular, this time we should have a much better idea about their offshore missile tracking activities. Noting your calculations in a previous post, the departure of a properly equipped NK (and / or Chinese) tracking ship will be the best indicator that the launch date of even longer range test flight is fast approaching.
Given the bellicose tone the NKoreans have adopted since the last round of UN sanctions after the April launch and the May nuke test, I’d be very surprised if they once again pursue the charade of cloaking their long-range missile test under the guise of “peaceful space launch” with all the attendant stagecraft of stay clear zones. The other milestones in the launch prep timeline (train movements, sat photos of a missile on the pad, etc.) are still worth noting, but I wouldn’t count on getting warning of the stage drop zones this time around.