North Korea is expected by just about everyone to launch at least one (and possibly two?) large missiles/rockets this weekend. And yet, they do not seem to have filed a warning to mariners and airmen notification with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). This is something they seemed to have been very proud to do over three weeks before the April 5th launch. What’s going on? Have they abandoned their adherence to the Outer Space Treaty already? Or are they just not as far along in their preparations for these (this) launch(es) as they are being given credit for?
HYDROPAC 1213/2009(95). SEA OF JAPAN. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 2300Z TO 1100Z COMMENCING DAILY
UNTIL 10 JUL IN AREA BOUND BY
39-32-07N 127-31-07E, 40-08-30N 128-54-00E,
40-42-30N 130-11-40E, 40-28-00N 130-22-30E,
39-57-30N 129-02-12E, 39-28-20N 127-39-00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 111200Z JUL.
http://www.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/MISC/warn/dm_p.html
I’m way too lazy to plot it out, but this may be it.
For the first stage dropping off at least.
I don’t think there are any benefits for them to go through the procedures to announce their test. If they announce, or they don’t announce, the world reaction will be the same, as was shown after the April 5th launch. If I had to make that choice, I would go with not announcing.
russiannavyblog: I think what you found is their shore-to-ship test zone:
The fact that they are announcing this is further indication, at least to me, that July 4th was chosen by the Western media as a good political date and that they are much farther from launch than we imagined. (Of course, I could be proved wrong in a few hours!)
http://www.newsweek.com/id/205099
Ready. Aim. Never Mind.
Why North Korea probably won’t test a long-range missile on July 4th.
By Mark Hosenball | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Jul 2, 2009
[snip]
…despite the North Koreans’ reported launch today of four short-range missiles, two U.S. national security officials tell NEWSWEEK that an Independence Day launch of another Taepodong 2 is essentially impossible because the North Koreans have not yet assembled such a rocket on a launch pad.
U.S. government experts are monitoring what may be preparations by the North Koreans to assemble another Taepodong 2 for launch. However, the rocket is still in pieces, according to the two officials (who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information) and would take days or even weeks to put together. Even after such a missile is assembled on a launchpad, the officials added, the North Koreans would then need several more days to load it with liquid fuel. The entire process of assembling and fueling such a rocket would be easily visible not only to secret spy satellites and aircraft operated by the U.S. and other Western governments but also to picture-taking satellites operated by commercial companies, one of the officials noted.
The available evidence indicates that if the North Koreans are preparing to launch another Taepodong 2, there is no way it could be launched in time for July 4; best estimates are that even if preparations are pursued at an accelerated rate, the earliest another large missile launch could take place would be several weeks from now. Hence, U.S. experts say, whatever Independence Day fireworks may light up the sky over Hawaii, Alaska, or the West Coast of the U.S., they likely won’t come from a North Korea missile test.